Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 09/09, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II
Team pages: Toronto FC II · Columbus Crew II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.32Total
Toronto FC II1.62
Columbus Crew II1.7
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
Columbus Crew II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Columbus Crew II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
1–4–1
Columbus Crew II
(6 last)
- Columbus Crew II2-2Toronto FC II
- Columbus Crew II3-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II0-0Columbus Crew II
- Columbus Crew II1-2Toronto FC II
- Columbus Crew II2-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-1Columbus Crew II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1490 · Columbus Crew II 1506
| Toronto FC II | Draw | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 1–4–1 Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 20/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Columbus Crew II |
| 28/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 08/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 05/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 37 | 47 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 37 | 45 |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 44 |
| 5 | CT United | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 44 | 43 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 42 |
| 8 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 9 | New York City FC II | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 44 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 11 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 43 | 38 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 48 | 36 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 52 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | Columbus Crew II |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 1-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Chicago Fire II | 4-2 W | 4-0 W |
| CT United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Atlanta United II | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| New England Revolution II | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 29/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Columbus Crew II win (39%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 36%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew II 39%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Toronto FC II 1.62 · Columbus Crew II 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.