Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 11/10, 23:00

Prediction: Jalapa vs Managua FC

Team pages: Jalapa · Managua FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Jalapa1.03

Managua FC2.02

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Jalapa Draw Managua FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Jalapa 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDLD

Managua FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Jalapa 2–4 Managua FC (6 last)

Managua FC3-0Jalapa
Managua FC1-0Jalapa
Jalapa2-0Managua FC
Jalapa2-1Managua FC
Managua FC4-2Jalapa
Managua FC3-1Jalapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jalapa 1425 · Managua FC 1610

	Jalapa	Draw	Managua FC
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1425 vs 1610).
H2H favours Managua FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jalapa	Managua FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	3.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 00:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.60 ★
X	3.60 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.01
2	1.75 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:27 +8’	3.70	3.60	1.75
06:10 +11’	3.80▲	3.60	1.73▼
23:13 +5’	4.50▲	3.80▲	1.57▼
23:51 +12’	5.00▲	3.90▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:13 +5’	5.45	3.96	1.49
02:31 +47’	5.37▼	3.94▼	1.50▲
09:37 +43’	5.45▲	3.96▲	1.49▼
10:58 +29’	5.60▲	4.01▲	1.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jalapa 2–0–4 Managua FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Jalapa
25/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Jalapa
17/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-0 HT 1-0	Managua FC
20/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	2-1 HT 2-0	Managua FC
17/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	4-2 HT 1-0	Jalapa
06/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	3-1 HT 3-0	Jalapa

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	10	8	2	0	33	10	26
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	10	6	2	2	12	7	20
5	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
6	San Marcos FC	10	3	2	5	10	14	11
7	HYH Export Sebaco FC	9	3	2	4	9	17	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Jalapa	10	1	2	7	6	16	5
10	Rancho Santana FC	10	1	2	7	8	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jalapa	Managua FC
CD Walter Ferretti	2-2 D	3-2 W
San Marcos FC	1-3 L	4-1 W
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	6-1 W
Diriangen	0-2 L	3-3 D
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
UNAN Managua	1-2 L	2-0 W
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 L	6-1 W
Real Esteli	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jalapa

WLLLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
06/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
03/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	0	0	D
30/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Managua FC

WWWWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	6-1	5	6	W
11/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
07/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	3-2	5	7	W
04/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	8	9	D
31/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
23/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	5-0	6-1	1	4	W
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jalapa vs Managua FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Managua FC win (59%). Probabilities: Jalapa 18%, draw 23%, Managua FC 59%.

How many goals are expected in Jalapa vs Managua FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Jalapa 1.03 · Managua FC 2.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jalapa vs Managua FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.