Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 16/10, 03:00

Prediction: Real Esteli vs Jalapa

Team pages: Real Esteli · Jalapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Real Esteli2.03

Jalapa0.55

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Real Esteli Draw Jalapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Esteli 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDDLW

Jalapa 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Real Esteli 3–3–0 Jalapa (6 last)

Jalapa0-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli3-1Jalapa
Jalapa0-0Real Esteli
Real Esteli2-1Jalapa
Jalapa2-2Real Esteli
Jalapa1-1Real Esteli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Esteli 1553 · Jalapa 1392

	Real Esteli	Draw	Jalapa
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	74%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Esteli (rating 1553 vs 1392).
H2H favours Real Esteli: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Esteli	Jalapa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.9	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.45
2	9.00 → 8.50▼	Pinn 9.70 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:54 +11’	1.22	5.50	9.00
06:58 +4’	1.25▲	5.25▼	8.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +53’	1.21	5.63	9.82
08:49 +13’	1.22▲	5.45▼	9.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Esteli 3–3–0 Jalapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Esteli
07/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	3-1 HT 2-1	Jalapa
03/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Esteli
06/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	2-1 HT 0-1	Jalapa
02/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-2 HT 1-1	Real Esteli
19/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Esteli

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	12	10	2	0	37	12	32
2	Diriangen	12	8	3	1	25	13	27
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	12	6	3	3	14	11	21
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	10	4	2	4	11	17	14
6	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
7	San Marcos FC	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Rancho Santana FC	11	1	3	7	9	21	6
10	Jalapa	11	1	2	8	6	17	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Esteli	Jalapa
Matagalpa FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	1-2 L
Managua FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
San Marcos FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	5-0 W	0-1 L
Diriangen	0-2 L	0-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Real Esteli (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Esteli

WWWLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	3-0	4-1	2	0	W
08/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
11/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
03/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
30/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
23/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
31/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	6	8	W

Jalapa

LLLLLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
04/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
06/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
03/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	0	0	D
30/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Esteli vs Jalapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Esteli win (73%). Probabilities: Real Esteli 73%, draw 18%, Jalapa 9%.

How many goals are expected in Real Esteli vs Jalapa?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Real Esteli 2.03 · Jalapa 0.55), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Esteli vs Jalapa?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.