Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 19/10, 01:00

Prediction: CD Walter Ferretti vs Real Esteli

Team pages: CD Walter Ferretti · Real Esteli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

CD Walter Ferretti1.22

Real Esteli2

1X2

22% 24% 54%

CD Walter Ferretti Draw Real Esteli

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Walter Ferretti 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDLDWW

Real Esteli 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDLWD

Head-to-head

CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Real Esteli (6 last)

Real Esteli4-1CD Walter Ferretti
Real Esteli2-4CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-4Real Esteli
Real Esteli1-1CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli0-0CD Walter Ferretti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Walter Ferretti 1503 · Real Esteli 1527

	CD Walter Ferretti	Draw	Real Esteli
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Esteli: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Walter Ferretti	Real Esteli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.2	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.75

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.37 ★
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	1.80 → 1.65▼	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +26’	3.60	3.50	1.80
11:06 +20’	4.00▲	3.70▲	1.67▼
12:26 +5’	4.10▲	3.75▲	1.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +9’	3.86	3.27	1.85
01:33 +46’	3.95▲	3.31▲	1.82▼
09:25 +50’	3.91▼	3.57▲	1.75▼
11:21 +5’	4.02▲	3.58▲	1.73▼
11:32 +59’	4.37▲	3.72▲	1.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Real Esteli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	4-1 HT 1-1	CD Walter Ferretti
16/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	2-4 HT 1-3	CD Walter Ferretti
15/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-4 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
28/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Walter Ferretti
03/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Esteli
25/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	12	8	3	1	25	13	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	11	5	2	4	13	17	17
6	CD Walter Ferretti	12	4	2	6	23	21	14
7	San Marcos FC	13	3	2	8	14	22	11
8	Matagalpa FC	12	3	0	9	7	29	9
9	Jalapa	12	1	3	8	7	18	6
10	Rancho Santana FC	12	1	3	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Walter Ferretti	Real Esteli
Matagalpa FC	5-1 W	4-1 W
Diriangen	4-2 W	0-2 L
Jalapa	2-2 D	1-1 D
Managua FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-1 D	5-0 W
San Marcos FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	0-1 L
Rancho Santana FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Walter Ferretti

WLWLLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	5-1	–	–	W
11/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
04/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	7	L
02/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
31/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
16/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
08/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
03/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	4-1	7	3	W

Real Esteli

WWLWWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
11/10	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	3-0	4-1	2	0	W
08/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
11/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
03/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
30/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
23/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
31/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Walter Ferretti vs Real Esteli?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Esteli win (54%). Probabilities: CD Walter Ferretti 22%, draw 24%, Real Esteli 54%.

How many goals are expected in CD Walter Ferretti vs Real Esteli?

The model expects 3.21 goals (CD Walter Ferretti 1.22 · Real Esteli 2), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Walter Ferretti vs Real Esteli?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.