Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 19/10, 03:00

Prediction: Rancho Santana FC vs Diriangen

Team pages: Rancho Santana FC · Diriangen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Rancho Santana FC0.94

Diriangen2.51

1X2

11% 18% 71%

Rancho Santana FC Draw Diriangen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Rancho Santana FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Diriangen 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Rancho Santana FC 0–6 Diriangen (6 last)

Diriangen2-1Rancho Santana FC
Diriangen5-1Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC0-4Diriangen
Rancho Santana FC1-8Diriangen
Diriangen6-0Rancho Santana FC
Diriangen3-0Rancho Santana FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rancho Santana FC 1412 · Diriangen 1580

	Rancho Santana FC	Draw	Diriangen
Our model	11%	18%	71%
Market	11%	18%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1412 vs 1580).
H2H favours Diriangen: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rancho Santana FC	Diriangen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	2.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.7	5.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.00

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +10’	8.00	5.00	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rancho Santana FC 0–0–6 Diriangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	2-1 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
26/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	5-1 HT 4-0	Rancho Santana FC
22/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Diriangen
21/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	1-8 HT 0-3	Diriangen
19/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	6-0 HT 2-0	Rancho Santana FC
28/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	3-0 HT 2-0	Rancho Santana FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	12	8	3	1	25	13	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	11	5	2	4	13	17	17
6	CD Walter Ferretti	12	4	2	6	23	21	14
7	San Marcos FC	13	3	2	8	14	22	11
8	Matagalpa FC	12	3	0	9	7	29	9
9	Jalapa	12	1	3	8	7	18	6
10	Rancho Santana FC	12	1	3	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rancho Santana FC	Diriangen
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
UNAN Managua	1-1 D	3-1 W
Managua FC	1-6 L	3-3 D
Real Esteli	1-1 D	2-0 W
Jalapa	1-1 D	2-0 W
Matagalpa FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Walter Ferretti	1-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Diriangen (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rancho Santana FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
03/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
03/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Diriangen

DWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
11/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
07/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
07/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	2	9	D
30/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
01/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rancho Santana FC vs Diriangen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Diriangen win (71%). Probabilities: Rancho Santana FC 11%, draw 18%, Diriangen 71%.

How many goals are expected in Rancho Santana FC vs Diriangen?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Rancho Santana FC 0.94 · Diriangen 2.51), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rancho Santana FC vs Diriangen?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.