Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: UNAN Managua vs San Marcos FC

Team pages: UNAN Managua · San Marcos FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

UNAN Managua1.44

San Marcos FC1.01

1X2

46% 28% 26%

UNAN Managua Draw San Marcos FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UNAN Managua 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWDL

San Marcos FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWLLL

Head-to-head

UNAN Managua 2–1 San Marcos FC (3 last)

San Marcos FC0-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua3-2San Marcos FC
San Marcos FC2-1UNAN Managua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNAN Managua 1520 · San Marcos FC 1445

	UNAN Managua	Draw	San Marcos FC
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNAN Managua (rating 1520 vs 1445).
H2H favours UNAN Managua: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNAN Managua	San Marcos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.6	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.8	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.91▲	Pinn 2.00 ★
X	3.70 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +22’	1.60	3.70	4.50
15:06 +14’	1.91▲	3.30▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +7’	2.02	3.27	3.28
01:48 +40’	1.95▼	3.32▲	3.42▲
02:36 +44’	2.00▲	3.28▼	3.33▼
13:56 +84’	1.98▼	3.30▲	3.36▲
22:43 +17’	2.00▲	3.26▼	3.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UNAN Managua 2–0–1 San Marcos FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	San Marcos FC	0-1 HT 0-1	UNAN Managua
02/05/21 Nicaragua Segunda Division	UNAN Managua	3-2 HT 1-1	San Marcos FC
28/04/21 Nicaragua Segunda Division	San Marcos FC	2-1 HT 1-1	UNAN Managua

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	13	11	2	0	41	13	35
2	Diriangen	12	8	3	1	25	13	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	7	3	3	17	13	24
4	Real Esteli	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	11	5	2	4	13	17	17
6	CD Walter Ferretti	12	4	2	6	23	21	14
7	San Marcos FC	13	3	2	8	14	22	11
8	Matagalpa FC	12	3	0	9	7	29	9
9	Jalapa	12	1	3	8	7	18	6
10	Rancho Santana FC	12	1	3	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNAN Managua	San Marcos FC
Diriangen	1-3 L	1-2 L
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Real Esteli	1-0 W	0-2 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 W	0-2 L
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Managua FC	0-2 L	2-3 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	1-0 W
Jalapa	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: San Marcos FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UNAN Managua

DWWWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	0	9	L
12/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
08/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
06/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	1	6	W
04/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D

San Marcos FC

LLLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
12/10	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
07/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
06/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
03/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
31/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
24/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNAN Managua vs San Marcos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNAN Managua win (46%). Probabilities: UNAN Managua 46%, draw 28%, San Marcos FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in UNAN Managua vs San Marcos FC?

The model expects 2.45 goals (UNAN Managua 1.44 · San Marcos FC 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UNAN Managua vs San Marcos FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.