Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 12/10, 01:00

Prediction: San Marcos FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC

Team pages: San Marcos FC · HYH Export Sebaco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

San Marcos FC1.39

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.43

1X2

36% 27% 37%

San Marcos FC Draw HYH Export Sebaco FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Marcos FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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HYH Export Sebaco FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

San Marcos FC 0–1–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC (2 last)

HYH Export Sebaco FC1-1San Marcos FC
San Marcos FC2-7HYH Export Sebaco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Marcos FC 1471 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1478

	San Marcos FC	Draw	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Marcos FC	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.55 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:00 +39’	2.35	3.30	2.55
06:12 +7’	2.50▲	3.30	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +56’	2.71	3.26	2.32
02:58 +21’	2.69▼	3.26	2.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos FC 0–1–1 HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-1 HT 1-1	San Marcos FC
01/03/23 Nicaragua Cup	San Marcos FC	2-7 HT 1-2	HYH Export Sebaco FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	10	8	2	0	33	10	26
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	10	6	2	2	12	7	20
5	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
6	San Marcos FC	10	3	2	5	10	14	11
7	HYH Export Sebaco FC	9	3	2	4	9	17	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Jalapa	10	1	2	7	6	16	5
10	Rancho Santana FC	10	1	2	7	8	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Marcos FC	HYH Export Sebaco FC
Diriangen	1-2 L	0-1 L
Jalapa	3-1 W	1-0 W
Real Esteli	0-2 L	0-5 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	1-1 D
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	1-3 L
Managua FC	1-4 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: San Marcos FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Marcos FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
06/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
03/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
31/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
24/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
25/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
18/07	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	7	D

HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
02/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Marcos FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HYH Export Sebaco FC win (37%). Probabilities: San Marcos FC 36%, draw 27%, HYH Export Sebaco FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in San Marcos FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (San Marcos FC 1.39 · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Marcos FC vs HYH Export Sebaco FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.