Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 12/10, 03:00

Prediction: Rancho Santana FC vs UNAN Managua

Team pages: Rancho Santana FC · UNAN Managua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Rancho Santana FC1.22

UNAN Managua1.47

1X2

30% 27% 42%

Rancho Santana FC Draw UNAN Managua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rancho Santana FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDDL

UNAN Managua 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Rancho Santana FC 3–1–2 UNAN Managua (6 last)

UNAN Managua2-0Rancho Santana FC
UNAN Managua0-2Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC1-3UNAN Managua
Rancho Santana FC2-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua0-1Rancho Santana FC
UNAN Managua1-1Rancho Santana FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rancho Santana FC 1436 · UNAN Managua 1537

	Rancho Santana FC	Draw	UNAN Managua
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNAN Managua (rating 1436 vs 1537).
H2H favours Rancho Santana FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rancho Santana FC	UNAN Managua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.8	0.9 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 2.90▼	Pinn 2.92
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.22 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:34 +8’	3.30	3.40	1.91
05:28 +8’	2.90▼	3.30▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +6’	2.92	3.21	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rancho Santana FC 3–1–2 UNAN Managua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	2-0 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC
16/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	0-2 HT 0-1	Rancho Santana FC
15/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	1-3 HT 1-1	UNAN Managua
02/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	2-1 HT 0-0	UNAN Managua
24/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	0-1 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
30/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	1-1 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	10	8	2	0	33	10	26
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	10	6	2	2	12	7	20
5	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
6	San Marcos FC	10	3	2	5	10	14	11
7	HYH Export Sebaco FC	9	3	2	4	9	17	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Jalapa	10	1	2	7	6	16	5
10	Rancho Santana FC	10	1	2	7	8	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rancho Santana FC	UNAN Managua
Managua FC	1-6 L	0-2 L
Real Esteli	1-1 D	1-0 W
Jalapa	1-1 D	2-1 W
Matagalpa FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
San Marcos FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
CD Walter Ferretti	1-3 L	1-0 W
Diriangen	1-2 L	1-1 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UNAN Managua (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rancho Santana FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
03/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
19/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-2	2	7	L

UNAN Managua

DWDWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
06/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	1	6	W
04/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D
28/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
18/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rancho Santana FC vs UNAN Managua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UNAN Managua win (42%). Probabilities: Rancho Santana FC 30%, draw 27%, UNAN Managua 42%.

How many goals are expected in Rancho Santana FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Rancho Santana FC 1.22 · UNAN Managua 1.47), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rancho Santana FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.