Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 15/10, 03:00

Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs CD Walter Ferretti

Team pages: Matagalpa FC · CD Walter Ferretti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Matagalpa FC1.54

CD Walter Ferretti1.47

1X2

38% 26% 35%

Matagalpa FC Draw CD Walter Ferretti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Matagalpa FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLWLL

CD Walter Ferretti 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Matagalpa FC 3–2–1 CD Walter Ferretti (6 last)

CD Walter Ferretti4-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC4-0CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-3Matagalpa FC
CD Walter Ferretti1-2Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC2-2CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-0Matagalpa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matagalpa FC 1457 · CD Walter Ferretti 1455

	Matagalpa FC	Draw	CD Walter Ferretti
Our model	38%	26%	35%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Matagalpa FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matagalpa FC	CD Walter Ferretti
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.7	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:29 +10’	2.35	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 3–2–1 CD Walter Ferretti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	4-1 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
19/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	4-0 HT 2-0	CD Walter Ferretti
19/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-3 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
06/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	1-2 HT 1-1	Matagalpa FC
31/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	2-2 HT 1-0	CD Walter Ferretti
08/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-0 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	11	9	2	0	34	10	29
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	11	6	3	2	13	8	21
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	10	4	2	4	11	17	14
6	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
7	San Marcos FC	11	3	2	6	10	16	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Rancho Santana FC	11	1	3	7	9	21	6
10	Jalapa	11	1	2	8	6	17	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matagalpa FC	CD Walter Ferretti
Real Esteli	1-4 L	1-4 L
Diriangen	0-3 L	4-2 W
UNAN Managua	1-0 W	0-1 L
Rancho Santana FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
Jalapa	1-0 W	2-2 D
San Marcos FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Managua FC	0-3 L	2-3 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CD Walter Ferretti (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matagalpa FC

LLLLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-3	1-4	0	0	L
07/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
04/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
30/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L

CD Walter Ferretti

LWLWLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
04/10	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	7	L
02/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
31/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
16/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
08/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
03/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Matagalpa FC win (38%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 38%, draw 26%, CD Walter Ferretti 35%.

How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Matagalpa FC 1.54 · CD Walter Ferretti 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.