Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 15/10, 23:00

Prediction: HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Rancho Santana FC

Team pages: HYH Export Sebaco FC · Rancho Santana FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.88

Rancho Santana FC0.92

1X2

59% 23% 17%

HYH Export Sebaco FC Draw Rancho Santana FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HYH Export Sebaco FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDLLW

Rancho Santana FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDDLD

Head-to-head

HYH Export Sebaco FC 5–1–0 Rancho Santana FC (6 last)

Rancho Santana FC0-1HYH Export Sebaco FC
Rancho Santana FC0-3HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC3-1Rancho Santana FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC2-0Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC1-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
Rancho Santana FC1-1HYH Export Sebaco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1516 · Rancho Santana FC 1410

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Draw	Rancho Santana FC
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HYH Export Sebaco FC (rating 1516 vs 1410).
H2H favours HYH Export Sebaco FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Rancho Santana FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	3.9 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +5’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HYH Export Sebaco FC 5–1–0 Rancho Santana FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	0-1 HT 0-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC
13/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	0-3 HT 0-2	HYH Export Sebaco FC
12/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Rancho Santana FC
25/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC
18/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	1-2 HT 0-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC
01/05/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	1-1 HT 0-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	11	9	2	0	34	10	29
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	11	6	3	2	13	8	21
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	10	4	2	4	11	17	14
6	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
7	San Marcos FC	11	3	2	6	10	16	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Rancho Santana FC	11	1	3	7	9	21	6
10	Jalapa	11	1	2	8	6	17	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Rancho Santana FC
San Marcos FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Diriangen	0-1 L	1-2 L
UNAN Managua	1-3 L	1-1 D
CD Walter Ferretti	1-1 D	1-3 L
Real Esteli	0-5 L	1-1 D
Managua FC	1-6 L	1-6 L
Jalapa	1-0 W	1-1 D
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HYH Export Sebaco FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HYH Export Sebaco FC

WDWWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
02/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W

Rancho Santana FC

LLLLLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
03/10	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
03/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HYH Export Sebaco FC win (59%). Probabilities: HYH Export Sebaco FC 59%, draw 23%, Rancho Santana FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model expects 2.8 goals (HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.88 · Rancho Santana FC 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.