Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 11/09, 02:00

Prediction: Managua FC vs Real Esteli

Team pages: Managua FC · Real Esteli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Managua FC1.33

Real Esteli1.4

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Managua FC Draw Real Esteli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Managua FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWDW

Real Esteli 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Managua FC 2–4 Real Esteli (6 last)

Real Esteli2-1Managua FC
Managua FC0-2Real Esteli
Managua FC0-2Real Esteli
Real Esteli0-2Managua FC
Managua FC2-1Real Esteli
Real Esteli1-0Managua FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Managua FC 1593 · Real Esteli 1549

	Managua FC	Draw	Real Esteli
Our model	34%	28%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1593 vs 1549).
H2H favours Real Esteli: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Managua FC	Real Esteli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.68
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.54 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:23 +11’	2.63	3.30	2.30
23:49 +3’	2.45▼	3.30	2.45▲
01:49 +3’	2.55▲	3.30	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +21’	2.86	3.05	2.34
17:18 +136’	2.80▼	3.02▼	2.40▲
22:04 +8’	2.70▼	3.01▼	2.48▲
23:43 +9’	2.66▼	3.01	2.52▲
01:30 +22’	2.68▲	3.08▲	2.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Managua FC 2–0–4 Real Esteli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Real Esteli	2-1 HT 0-1	Managua FC
08/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
07/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Managua FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Esteli
01/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Real Esteli	0-2 HT 0-0	Managua FC
23/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Real Esteli
11/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Real Esteli	1-0 HT 0-0	Managua FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	8	7	1	0	26	8	22
2	Diriangen	8	5	3	0	17	7	18
3	Real Esteli	8	5	2	1	16	5	17
4	UNAN Managua	9	5	2	2	11	7	17
5	San Marcos FC	9	3	2	4	9	12	11
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	8	3	2	3	9	16	11
7	Matagalpa FC	9	3	0	6	4	16	9
8	CD Walter Ferretti	9	2	1	6	12	16	7
9	Rancho Santana FC	9	1	2	6	7	14	5
10	Jalapa	9	1	1	7	4	14	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Managua FC	Real Esteli
CD Walter Ferretti	3-2 W	4-1 W
Diriangen	3-3 D	0-2 L
UNAN Managua	2-0 W	1-1 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	6-1 W	5-0 W
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
San Marcos FC	4-1 W	2-0 W
Jalapa	3-0 W	1-0 W
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Managua FC

DLWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	3-2	5	7	W
04/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	8	9	D
31/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
23/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	5-0	6-1	1	4	W
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
21/12	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	12	L
23/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Real Esteli

LDDWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
03/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
30/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
23/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
31/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
18/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
28/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
23/11	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Managua FC vs Real Esteli?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Esteli win (38%). Probabilities: Managua FC 35%, draw 27%, Real Esteli 38%.

How many goals are expected in Managua FC vs Real Esteli?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Managua FC 1.33 · Real Esteli 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Managua FC vs Real Esteli?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.