Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 07/09, 03:00

Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs Diriangen

Team pages: Matagalpa FC · Diriangen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Matagalpa FC0.91

Diriangen1.91

1X2

17% 23% 60%

Matagalpa FC Draw Diriangen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Matagalpa FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWWLW

Diriangen 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWWD

Head-to-head

Matagalpa FC 0–2–4 Diriangen (6 last)

Diriangen3-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-1Diriangen
Matagalpa FC2-3Diriangen
Diriangen1-1Matagalpa FC
Diriangen2-2Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-2Diriangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matagalpa FC 1479 · Diriangen 1566

	Matagalpa FC	Draw	Diriangen
Our model	16%	24%	60%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1479 vs 1566).
H2H favours Diriangen: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matagalpa FC	Diriangen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 1	6.8 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:53 +3’	5.25	4.00	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 0–2–4 Diriangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	3-1 HT 1-0	Matagalpa FC
03/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Diriangen
09/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	2-3 HT 0-0	Diriangen
07/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	1-1 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
23/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	2-2 HT 0-1	Matagalpa FC
09/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Diriangen

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	7	6	1	0	23	6	19
2	Real Esteli	7	5	1	1	15	4	16
3	Diriangen	7	4	3	0	14	7	15
4	UNAN Managua	8	4	2	2	8	6	14
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	7	3	2	2	8	13	11
6	Matagalpa FC	8	3	0	5	4	13	9
7	San Marcos FC	8	2	2	4	6	11	8
8	CD Walter Ferretti	8	2	1	5	10	13	7
9	Rancho Santana FC	8	1	1	6	6	13	4
10	Jalapa	8	1	1	6	3	11	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matagalpa FC	Diriangen
UNAN Managua	1-0 W	1-1 D
Rancho Santana FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Jalapa	1-0 W	2-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Managua FC	0-3 L	3-3 D
CD Walter Ferretti	1-4 L	3-1 W
Real Esteli	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Diriangen (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matagalpa FC

WWLLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
30/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	12	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
23/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	2	7	W

Diriangen

WDWDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	2	9	D
30/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
01/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	12	D
24/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
18/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
21/12	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	5	12	W
23/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs Diriangen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Diriangen win (60%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 17%, draw 23%, Diriangen 60%.

How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs Diriangen?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Matagalpa FC 0.91 · Diriangen 1.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs Diriangen?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.