Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 06/09, 23:00

Prediction: HYH Export Sebaco FC vs UNAN Managua

Team pages: HYH Export Sebaco FC · UNAN Managua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.8

UNAN Managua1.26

1X2

49% 25% 26%

HYH Export Sebaco FC Draw UNAN Managua

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HYH Export Sebaco FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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UNAN Managua 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HYH Export Sebaco FC 5–1 UNAN Managua (6 last)

UNAN Managua1-3HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC4-1UNAN Managua
HYH Export Sebaco FC3-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua2-4HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC3-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua3-2HYH Export Sebaco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1537 · UNAN Managua 1490

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Draw	UNAN Managua
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HYH Export Sebaco FC (rating 1537 vs 1490).
H2H favours HYH Export Sebaco FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	UNAN Managua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2	0.7 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:00 +4’	1.85	3.40	3.50
07:53 +2’	1.95▲	3.50▲	3.20▼
09:43 +4’	1.83▼	3.60▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HYH Export Sebaco FC 5–0–1 UNAN Managua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	1-3 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
22/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	4-1 HT 4-0	UNAN Managua
23/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 HT 1-0	UNAN Managua
15/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	2-4 HT 2-2	HYH Export Sebaco FC
06/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 HT 1-1	UNAN Managua
10/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	3-2 HT 0-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	7	6	1	0	23	6	19
2	Real Esteli	7	5	1	1	15	4	16
3	Diriangen	7	4	3	0	14	7	15
4	UNAN Managua	8	4	2	2	8	6	14
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	7	3	2	2	8	13	11
6	Matagalpa FC	8	3	0	5	4	13	9
7	San Marcos FC	8	2	2	4	6	11	8
8	CD Walter Ferretti	8	2	1	5	10	13	7
9	Rancho Santana FC	8	1	1	6	6	13	4
10	Jalapa	8	1	1	6	3	11	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HYH Export Sebaco FC	UNAN Managua
CD Walter Ferretti	1-1 D	1-0 W
Real Esteli	0-5 L	1-1 D
Managua FC	1-6 L	0-2 L
Jalapa	1-0 W	2-1 W
Rancho Santana FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	0-1 L
Diriangen	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UNAN Managua (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HYH Export Sebaco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	0	8	L
03/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	0	1	L

UNAN Managua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D
28/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
18/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/11	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
06/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs UNAN Managua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HYH Export Sebaco FC win (49%). Probabilities: HYH Export Sebaco FC 49%, draw 25%, UNAN Managua 26%.

How many goals are expected in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model expects 3.06 goals (HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.8 · UNAN Managua 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.