Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 04/09, 03:00

Prediction: Matagalpa FC vs UNAN Managua

Team pages: Matagalpa FC · UNAN Managua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Matagalpa FC1.33

UNAN Managua1.18

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Matagalpa FC Draw UNAN Managua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Matagalpa FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWWL

UNAN Managua 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Matagalpa FC 1–4–1 UNAN Managua (6 last)

UNAN Managua2-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC0-0UNAN Managua
Matagalpa FC4-0UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua2-2Matagalpa FC
UNAN Managua1-1Matagalpa FC
Matagalpa FC2-2UNAN Managua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matagalpa FC 1473 · UNAN Managua 1520

	Matagalpa FC	Draw	UNAN Managua
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNAN Managua (rating 1473 vs 1520).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matagalpa FC	UNAN Managua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.9	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +14’	1.80	3.50	3.70
18:18 +5’	2.25▲	3.30▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matagalpa FC 1–4–1 UNAN Managua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	2-1 HT 2-0	Matagalpa FC
04/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	0-0 HT 0-0	UNAN Managua
14/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Matagalpa FC	4-0 HT 1-0	UNAN Managua
03/08/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	2-2 HT 1-1	Matagalpa FC
27/04/25 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	1-1 HT 0-0	Matagalpa FC
19/02/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Matagalpa FC	2-2 HT 1-0	UNAN Managua

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	6	6	0	0	20	3	18
2	Diriangen	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	UNAN Managua	7	4	2	1	8	5	14
4	Real Esteli	6	4	1	1	13	4	13
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	6	3	1	2	7	12	10
6	San Marcos FC	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
7	CD Walter Ferretti	7	2	0	5	9	12	6
8	Matagalpa FC	7	2	0	5	3	13	6
9	Rancho Santana FC	7	1	0	6	5	12	3
10	Jalapa	7	1	0	6	2	10	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matagalpa FC	UNAN Managua
Rancho Santana FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Jalapa	1-0 W	2-1 W
San Marcos FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Managua FC	0-3 L	0-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-4 L	1-0 W
Real Esteli	0-2 L	1-1 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UNAN Managua (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matagalpa FC

LWWLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	12	W
10/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
19/07	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	11	2	L
23/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
02/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	4	2	L

UNAN Managua

LLLDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D
28/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
18/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/11	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
06/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
02/11	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matagalpa FC vs UNAN Managua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Matagalpa FC win (40%). Probabilities: Matagalpa FC 40%, draw 28%, UNAN Managua 32%.

How many goals are expected in Matagalpa FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Matagalpa FC 1.33 · UNAN Managua 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Matagalpa FC vs UNAN Managua?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.