Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 15/10, 01:00

Prediction: UNAN Managua vs Diriangen

Team pages: UNAN Managua · Diriangen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

UNAN Managua0.99

Diriangen1.73

1X2

21% 25% 54%

UNAN Managua Draw Diriangen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UNAN Managua 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLWWD

Diriangen 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWWL

Head-to-head

UNAN Managua 0–1–5 Diriangen (6 last)

Diriangen1-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua1-2Diriangen
Diriangen3-1UNAN Managua
Diriangen2-1UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua1-4Diriangen
Diriangen3-0UNAN Managua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNAN Managua 1523 · Diriangen 1572

	UNAN Managua	Draw	Diriangen
Our model	20%	26%	54%
Market	21%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1523 vs 1572).
H2H favours Diriangen: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNAN Managua	Diriangen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.7	2.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.8	5 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.70

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:05 +7’	4.20	3.70	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UNAN Managua 0–1–5 Diriangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	1-1 HT 1-0	UNAN Managua
05/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	UNAN Managua	1-2 HT 1-1	Diriangen
31/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	3-1 HT 2-0	UNAN Managua
20/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	2-1 HT 0-0	UNAN Managua
27/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	UNAN Managua	1-4 HT 0-3	Diriangen
13/07/25 Nicaragua Cup	Diriangen	3-0 HT 1-0	UNAN Managua

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	11	9	2	0	34	10	29
2	Diriangen	11	7	3	1	22	12	24
3	Real Esteli	11	6	3	2	21	8	21
4	UNAN Managua	11	6	3	2	13	8	21
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	10	4	2	4	11	17	14
6	CD Walter Ferretti	11	3	2	6	18	20	11
7	San Marcos FC	11	3	2	6	10	16	11
8	Matagalpa FC	10	3	0	7	5	20	9
9	Rancho Santana FC	11	1	3	7	9	21	6
10	Jalapa	11	1	2	8	6	17	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNAN Managua	Diriangen
Rancho Santana FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Real Esteli	1-0 W	2-0 W
HYH Export Sebaco FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
Managua FC	0-2 L	3-3 D
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	2-4 L
Jalapa	2-1 W	2-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Diriangen (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UNAN Managua

WDWWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
08/10	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
06/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	1	6	W
04/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
31/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
17/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
10/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	12	D
28/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	1	5	W

Diriangen

WDWWWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
07/10	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
07/09	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	2	9	D
30/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
01/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	12	D
24/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNAN Managua vs Diriangen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Diriangen win (54%). Probabilities: UNAN Managua 21%, draw 25%, Diriangen 54%.

How many goals are expected in UNAN Managua vs Diriangen?

The model expects 2.72 goals (UNAN Managua 0.99 · Diriangen 1.73), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UNAN Managua vs Diriangen?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.