Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 09/09, 19:30

Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Ironi Nesher

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye · Ironi Nesher

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1.18

Ironi Nesher1.75

1X2

25% 25% 50%

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Draw Ironi Nesher

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Ironi Nesher 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 2–3–1 Ironi Nesher (6 last)

Ironi Nesher0-0Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye3-0Ironi Nesher
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1-1Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher1-0Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye4-0Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher0-0Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1504 · Ironi Nesher 1495

	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	Draw	Ironi Nesher
Our model	25%	26%	50%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	Ironi Nesher
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 1.80▼	Pinn 2.00 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +2’	2.20	3.40	2.75
11:36 +1’	3.60▲	3.60▲	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:30 +14’	2.28	3.07	2.77
11:37	3.35▲	3.06▼	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 2–3–1 Ironi Nesher

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
31/10/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	3-0 HT 1-0	Ironi Nesher
18/02/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	1-1 HT 0-0	Ironi Nesher
20/09/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	1-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
01/03/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	4-0 HT 1-0	Ironi Nesher
28/09/23 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	1	1	0	0	6	1	3
2	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
3	Beitar Nahariya	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	Sport Club Tira	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Hapoel Beit Shean	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	FC Tzeirey Tamra	1	0	0	1	1	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	Ironi Nesher
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	2-1 W	0-3 L
Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5-4 W	3-1 W
Sport Club Tira	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ironi Nesher (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
20/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
06/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-1	6	9	W
30/01	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/01	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
16/01	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
09/01	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-2	5-4	5	6	W
06/01	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Ironi Nesher

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	6-1	7	3	W
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
19/02	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	2	9	L
13/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/02	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
30/01	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
23/01	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
16/01	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	1-3	4	7	L
11/01	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-3	5	8	L
06/01	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-4	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Ironi Nesher?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ironi Nesher win (50%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 25%, draw 25%, Ironi Nesher 50%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Ironi Nesher?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1.18 · Ironi Nesher 1.75), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye vs Ironi Nesher?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.