Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs TPS

Team pages: IFK Mariehamn · TPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

IFK Mariehamn1.35

TPS1.4

1X2

35% 28% 37%

IFK Mariehamn Draw TPS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWWW

TPS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWDD

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn 0–4–2 TPS (6 last)

TPS3-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn1-1TPS
IFK Mariehamn1-1TPS
IFK Mariehamn2-2TPS
IFK Mariehamn1-3TPS
TPS1-1IFK Mariehamn

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPS (rating 1455 vs 1517).
H2H favours TPS: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn	TPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.94

Under 2.751.86

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.87 → 2.87	Pinn 2.87
X	3.85 → 3.85	Pinn 3.85
2	2.21 → 2.21	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +6’	2.87	3.85	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 0–4–2 TPS

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	TPS	3-0 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn
04/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	1-1 HT 1-0	TPS
11/02/26 Finland Liigacup	IFK Mariehamn	1-1 HT 0-0	TPS
28/05/25 Finland Cup	IFK Mariehamn	2-2 HT 2-0	TPS
22/03/24 Club Friendly List	IFK Mariehamn	1-3 HT 1-3	TPS
14/09/20 Finland Veikkausliiga	TPS	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lahti	22	9	5	8	26	19	32
2	TPS	22	8	7	7	28	23	31
3	FC Ilves	22	7	4	11	34	37	25
4	SJK	22	4	7	11	25	33	19
5	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	18	44	15
6	IFK Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn	TPS
FF Jaro	2-0 W	3-2 W
KuPS Kuopio	4-2 W	1-1 D
SJK	2-0 W	1-3 L
FC Ilves	0-2 L	1-3 L
AC Oulu	1-1 D	3-0 W
IF Gnistan	2-4 L	1-1 D
VPS Vaasa	0-4 L	3-1 W
FC Inter	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TPS (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Mariehamn

LLLLDLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
23/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
15/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
11/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-4	2	1	L
04/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

TPS

WLWLLWDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
14/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
09/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
01/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
26/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
20/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-3	7	7	L
11/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
27/06	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs TPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TPS win (37%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 35%, draw 28%, TPS 37%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs TPS?

The model expects 2.75 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.35 · TPS 1.4), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs TPS?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.