Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio

Team pages: VPS Vaasa · KuPS Kuopio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

VPS Vaasa1.11

KuPS Kuopio1.16

1X2

34% 30% 36%

VPS Vaasa Draw KuPS Kuopio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

VPS Vaasa 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLWLW

KuPS Kuopio 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWLLDD

Head-to-head

VPS Vaasa 1–3–2 KuPS Kuopio (6 last)

KuPS Kuopio3-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio0-0VPS Vaasa
KuPS Kuopio3-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio0-2VPS Vaasa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPS Vaasa 1484 · KuPS Kuopio 1523

	VPS Vaasa	Draw	KuPS Kuopio
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPS Vaasa	KuPS Kuopio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +5’	2.63	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 1–3–2 KuPS Kuopio

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 3-0	VPS Vaasa
13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 1-0	KuPS Kuopio
10/06/26 Finland Cup	KuPS Kuopio	0-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
31/01/26 Finland Liigacup	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 1-0	VPS Vaasa
19/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 0-0	KuPS Kuopio
25/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	0-2 HT 0-1	VPS Vaasa

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	24	12	9	3	39	24	45
2	FC Inter	23	11	9	3	30	18	42
3	HJK Helsinki	24	12	5	7	38	28	41
4	IF Gnistan	24	11	7	6	39	31	40
5	VPS Vaasa	23	10	6	7	30	22	36
6	AC Oulu	24	10	4	10	26	28	34

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPS Vaasa	KuPS Kuopio
FC Lahti	0-1 L	2-1 W
TPS	1-3 L	1-1 D
FC Inter	0-1 L	0-1 L
HJK Helsinki	1-2 L	0-0 D
SJK	1-0 W	2-0 W
IFK Mariehamn	4-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPS Vaasa

WWLLLWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
31/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	1-3	4	2	L
18/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
10/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
04/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	4-0	4	0	W

KuPS Kuopio

WWWWDWLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-1	1	2	W
18/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
27/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KuPS Kuopio win (36%). Probabilities: VPS Vaasa 34%, draw 30%, KuPS Kuopio 36%.

How many goals are expected in VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model expects 2.27 goals (VPS Vaasa 1.11 · KuPS Kuopio 1.16), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.