Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 19/09, 14:00
Prediction: TPS vs FC Ilves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
TPS1.33
FC Ilves1.09
1X2
TPS
Draw
FC Ilves
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
TPS
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
FC Ilves
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
TPS
0–6
FC Ilves
(6 last)
- TPS1-3FC Ilves
- FC Ilves1-0TPS
- FC Ilves1-0TPS
- TPS0-2FC Ilves
- FC Ilves2-0TPS
- TPS1-7FC Ilves
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Ilves: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TPS | FC Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · TPS 0–0–6 FC Ilves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | TPS | 1-3 HT 1-2 | FC Ilves |
| 13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 1-0 HT 0-0 | TPS |
| 27/05/26 Finland Cup | FC Ilves | 1-0 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 26/04/23 Finland Cup | TPS | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Ilves |
| 25/03/23 Europe Friendlies | FC Ilves | 2-0 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 15/01/21 Europe Friendlies | TPS | 1-7 HT 1-4 | FC Ilves |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lahti | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 23 | 35 |
| 2 | TPS | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 32 |
| 3 | FC Ilves | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 31 |
| 4 | SJK | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 34 | 21 |
| 5 | IFK Mariehamn | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 17 |
| 6 | FF Jaro | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 47 | 16 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TPS | FC Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| IFK Mariehamn | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| IF Gnistan | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| VPS Vaasa | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| HJK Helsinki | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| AC Oulu | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: TPS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/07 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
FC Ilves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TPS vs FC Ilves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a TPS win (41%). Probabilities: TPS 41%, draw 30%, FC Ilves 29%.
How many goals are expected in TPS vs FC Ilves?
The model expects 2.41 goals (TPS 1.33 · FC Ilves 1.09), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in TPS vs FC Ilves?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.