Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 12/09, 18:00
Prediction: FC Ilves vs FC Lahti
Team pages: FC Ilves · FC Lahti
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
FC Ilves1.34
FC Lahti1.5
1X2
FC Ilves
Draw
FC Lahti
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Ilves
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
FC Lahti
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Ilves
3–2–1
FC Lahti
(6 last)
- FC Ilves1-0FC Lahti
- FC Ilves5-2FC Lahti
- FC Lahti5-0FC Ilves
- FC Lahti2-2FC Ilves
- FC Ilves0-0FC Lahti
- FC Lahti1-5FC Ilves
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti (rating 1475 vs 1553).
- H2H favours FC Ilves: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ilves | FC Lahti | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ilves 3–2–1 FC Lahti
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Lahti |
| 10/06/26 Finland Cup | FC Ilves | 5-2 HT 4-2 | FC Lahti |
| 30/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 5-0 HT 3-0 | FC Ilves |
| 29/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 2-2 HT 1-2 | FC Ilves |
| 06/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Lahti |
| 21/10/23 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 1-5 HT 1-3 | FC Ilves |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | TPS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | 25 |
| 4 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | 15 |
| 6 | IFK Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ilves | FC Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| HJK Helsinki | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| VPS Vaasa | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| IF Gnistan | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| IFK Mariehamn | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| AC Oulu | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FF Jaro | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| SJK | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| KuPS Kuopio | 3-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Lahti (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ilves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
FC Lahti
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/08 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ilves vs FC Lahti?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Lahti win (40%). Probabilities: FC Ilves 33%, draw 27%, FC Lahti 40%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ilves vs FC Lahti?
The model expects 2.84 goals (FC Ilves 1.34 · FC Lahti 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ilves vs FC Lahti?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.