Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: AC Oulu vs IF Gnistan

Team pages: AC Oulu · IF Gnistan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

AC Oulu1.4

IF Gnistan1.42

1X2

36% 27% 37%

AC Oulu Draw IF Gnistan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Oulu 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLLWDL

IF Gnistan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLDWWD

Head-to-head

AC Oulu 1–5 IF Gnistan (6 last)

AC Oulu0-2IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan1-5AC Oulu
IF Gnistan3-2AC Oulu
AC Oulu2-3IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan1-0AC Oulu
IF Gnistan2-0AC Oulu

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1473 vs 1531).
H2H favours IF Gnistan: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Oulu	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.2	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.15
X	3.71 → 3.71	Pinn 3.71
2	3.16 → 3.16	Pinn 3.16

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +20’	2.15	3.71	3.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Oulu 1–0–5 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	AC Oulu	0-2 HT 0-1	IF Gnistan
04/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	1-5 HT 1-2	AC Oulu
25/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	3-2 HT 1-1	AC Oulu
10/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	AC Oulu	2-3 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan
27/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Oulu
18/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-0 HT 2-0	AC Oulu

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	22	12	7	3	38	23	43
2	FC Inter	22	11	9	2	29	16	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
4	IF Gnistan	22	10	6	6	36	29	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	25	25	34
6	VPS Vaasa	22	9	6	7	29	22	33

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Oulu	IF Gnistan
VPS Vaasa	0-1 L	1-1 D
SJK	0-0 D	2-2 D
FC Inter	2-3 L	2-1 W
HJK Helsinki	0-1 L	3-2 W
FC Ilves	1-0 W	3-2 W
IFK Mariehamn	1-1 D	4-2 W
TPS	0-3 L	1-1 D
FC Lahti	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Oulu

DLLDWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
31/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
22/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
16/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	3	3	L
09/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
11/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	0-3	9	2	L
27/06	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D

IF Gnistan

DLWWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
23/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	3-2	7	5	W
17/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	3-2	8	5	W
07/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
01/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
11/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-2	8	1	W
04/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/06	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Oulu vs IF Gnistan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IF Gnistan win (37%). Probabilities: AC Oulu 36%, draw 27%, IF Gnistan 37%.

How many goals are expected in AC Oulu vs IF Gnistan?

The model expects 2.83 goals (AC Oulu 1.4 · IF Gnistan 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs IF Gnistan?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.