Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 13/09, 14:00

Prediction: KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki

Team pages: KuPS Kuopio · HJK Helsinki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

KuPS Kuopio1.52

HJK Helsinki1.24

1X2

43% 27% 30%

KuPS Kuopio Draw HJK Helsinki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS Kuopio 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLLD

HJK Helsinki 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

KuPS Kuopio 4–1–1 HJK Helsinki (6 last)

HJK Helsinki0-4KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio1-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki0-2KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio3-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki1-0KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio3-0HJK Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS Kuopio 1551 · HJK Helsinki 1506

	KuPS Kuopio	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Our model	43%	28%	30%
Market	43%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS Kuopio (rating 1551 vs 1506).
H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS Kuopio	HJK Helsinki
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.18
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.51
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.37 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:36 +13’	2.05	3.50	3.20
09:17 +7’	2.10▲	3.50	3.10▼
03:03 +43’	2.10	3.50	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +49’	2.30	3.46	3.07
00:11 +61’	2.25▼	3.47▲	3.15▲
08:25 +38’	2.16▼	3.47	3.33▲
14:04 +269’	2.18▲	3.51▲	3.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS Kuopio 4–1–1 HJK Helsinki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	0-4 HT 0-1	KuPS Kuopio
26/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	1-1 HT 1-0	HJK Helsinki
09/11/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	0-2 HT 0-1	KuPS Kuopio
19/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 1-0	HJK Helsinki
20/09/25 Finland Cup	HJK Helsinki	1-0 HT 0-0	KuPS Kuopio
27/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-0 HT 2-0	HJK Helsinki

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	23	12	8	3	39	24	44
2	FC Inter	23	11	9	3	30	18	42
3	HJK Helsinki	23	12	4	7	38	28	40
4	IF Gnistan	23	10	7	6	37	30	37
5	VPS Vaasa	23	10	6	7	30	22	36
6	AC Oulu	23	10	4	9	25	26	34

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS Kuopio	HJK Helsinki
IF Gnistan	1-1 D	2-3 L
FC Inter	0-1 L	2-1 W
FC Lahti	2-1 W	0-2 L
TPS	1-1 D	1-0 W
VPS Vaasa	3-1 W	2-1 W
SJK	2-0 W	0-3 L
FC Ilves	4-3 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS Kuopio

WWWWWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-1	1	2	W
18/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
27/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
23/06	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	4-1	4-3	4	2	W

HJK Helsinki

LLWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
31/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	1	5	L
16/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-3	16	3	L
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
11/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS Kuopio win (43%). Probabilities: KuPS Kuopio 43%, draw 27%, HJK Helsinki 30%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

The model expects 2.76 goals (KuPS Kuopio 1.52 · HJK Helsinki 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.