Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 06/09, 08:00

Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs NWS Spirit FC

Team pages: Apia L Tigers · NWS Spirit FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Apia L Tigers2.21

NWS Spirit FC1.16

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Apia L Tigers Draw NWS Spirit FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Apia L Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWDWDW

NWS Spirit FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Apia L Tigers 4–2 NWS Spirit FC (6 last)

NWS Spirit FC1-2Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers3-2NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC1-0Apia L Tigers
NWS Spirit FC1-4Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers0-3NWS Spirit FC
Apia L Tigers1-0NWS Spirit FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1579 · NWS Spirit FC 1517

	Apia L Tigers	Draw	NWS Spirit FC
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1579 vs 1517).
H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apia L Tigers	NWS Spirit FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.50▲	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.34 ★
2	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.38

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +9’	1.42	4.20	5.50
23:47 +2’	1.48▲	4.10▼	5.00▼
01:08 +3’	1.50▲	4.00▼	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:37	1.46	4.45	5.50
12:27 +2’	1.47▲	4.46▲	5.37▼
14:35	1.48▲	4.32▼	5.37
06:59 +1’	1.48▼	4.34▲	5.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 4–0–2 NWS Spirit FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers
14/02/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	3-2 HT 2-0	NWS Spirit FC
07/06/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers
07/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	NWS Spirit FC	1-4 HT 0-2	Apia L Tigers
23/02/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	0-3 HT 0-2	NWS Spirit FC
25/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	1-0 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	30	21	5	4	66	35	68
2	Sydney United 58	30	20	4	6	47	20	64
3	Marconi Stallions	30	19	5	6	50	22	62
4	Sutherland Sharks	30	14	4	12	46	38	46
5	Manly Utd	30	12	8	10	39	35	44
6	NWS Spirit FC	30	12	5	13	37	38	41
7	SD Raiders	30	12	5	13	44	49	41
8	Sydney FC U21	30	11	8	11	38	43	41
9	Rockdale Ilinden FC	30	12	4	14	46	44	40
10	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	30	11	5	14	55	49	38
11	Wollongong Wolves	30	11	5	14	35	43	38
12	St George City FA	30	10	7	13	30	46	37
13	Blacktown City	30	9	8	13	43	46	35
14	University NSW	30	9	5	16	38	49	32
15	St George Saints	30	8	3	19	28	55	27
16	Sydney Olympic	30	6	5	19	32	62	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apia L Tigers	NWS Spirit FC
Sydney United 58	0-0 D	0-2 L
SD Raiders	3-1 W	1-0 W
St George Saints	0-0 D	3-1 W
University NSW	4-1 W	1-3 L
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	5-3 W	0-4 L
Rockdale Ilinden FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Apia L Tigers

LLWWWWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	4-2	6	0	W
23/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	3-1	4	8	W
08/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L

NWS Spirit FC

DWLLLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
30/08	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
15/08	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	4-0	4	1	W
08/08	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
25/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-4	8	0	L
18/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
11/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs NWS Spirit FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (60%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 60%, draw 22%, NWS Spirit FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs NWS Spirit FC?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Apia L Tigers 2.21 · NWS Spirit FC 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs NWS Spirit FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.