Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 02/09, 11:30
Prediction: Sutherland Sharks vs Manly Utd
Team pages: Sutherland Sharks · Manly Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Sutherland Sharks1.48
Manly Utd1.44
1X2
Sutherland Sharks
Draw
Manly Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sutherland Sharks
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Manly Utd
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sutherland Sharks
3–3
Manly Utd
(6 last)
- Manly Utd2-1Sutherland Sharks
- Sutherland Sharks1-2Manly Utd
- Sutherland Sharks3-0Manly Utd
- Sutherland Sharks0-1Manly Utd
- Manly Utd0-3Sutherland Sharks
- Manly Utd1-2Sutherland Sharks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutherland Sharks 1516 · Manly Utd 1560
| Sutherland Sharks | Draw | Manly Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (rating 1516 vs 1560).
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sutherland Sharks | Manly Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.2 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutherland Sharks 3–0–3 Manly Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Manly Utd | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 28/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Sutherland Sharks | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Manly Utd |
| 28/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Manly Utd |
| 31/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Manly Utd |
| 14/02/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Manly Utd | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 26/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Manly Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sutherland Sharks |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apia L Tigers | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 66 | 35 | 68 |
| 2 | Sydney United 58 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 20 | 64 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 22 | 62 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 38 | 46 |
| 5 | Manly Utd | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 35 | 44 |
| 6 | NWS Spirit FC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 38 | 41 |
| 7 | SD Raiders | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 44 | 49 | 41 |
| 8 | Sydney FC U21 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 43 | 41 |
| 9 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 44 | 40 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 49 | 38 |
| 11 | Wollongong Wolves | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 43 | 38 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 46 | 37 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 46 | 35 |
| 14 | University NSW | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 38 | 49 | 32 |
| 15 | St George Saints | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 55 | 27 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 62 | 23 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutherland Sharks | Manly Utd |
|---|---|---|
| SD Raiders | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Marconi Stallions | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Sydney FC U21 | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Wollongong Wolves | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Rockdale Ilinden FC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sydney Olympic | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| University NSW | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Manly Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/07 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/07 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/07 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sutherland Sharks vs Manly Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sutherland Sharks win (37%). Probabilities: Sutherland Sharks 37%, draw 27%, Manly Utd 36%.
How many goals are expected in Sutherland Sharks vs Manly Utd?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Sutherland Sharks 1.48 · Manly Utd 1.44), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sutherland Sharks vs Manly Utd?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.