Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 13/09, 07:00

Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58

Team pages: Apia L Tigers · Sydney United 58

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Apia L Tigers1.48

Sydney United 581.12

1X2

45% 28% 28%

Apia L Tigers Draw Sydney United 58

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Apia L Tigers 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWDWW

Sydney United 58 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Apia L Tigers 1–3–2 Sydney United 58 (6 last)

Sydney United 580-0Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers1-1Sydney United 58
Apia L Tigers2-1Sydney United 58
Apia L Tigers2-2Sydney United 58
Sydney United 582-1Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers1-2Sydney United 58

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1583 · Sydney United 58 1570

	Apia L Tigers	Draw	Sydney United 58
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sydney United 58: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apia L Tigers	Sydney United 58
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 06:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.16
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	2.60 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.82 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +1’	2.35	3.40	2.60
11:14 +3’	2.30▼	3.40	2.63▲
03:24 +4’	2.20▼	3.20▼	3.00▲
07:48 +8’	2.10▼	3.20	3.00
03:55 +3’	2.15▲	3.20	3.00
06:29 +2’	2.00▼	3.30▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +14’	2.35	2.70	3.40
10:27 +51’	2.35	2.68▼	3.41▲
15:00 +3’	2.36▲	2.67▼	3.41
00:14 +194’	2.27▼	2.70▲	3.56▲
07:03 +53’	2.26▼	2.70	3.59▲
15:41 +127’	2.25▼	2.71▲	3.58▼
05:05 +45’	2.28▲	2.75▲	3.64▲
06:28 +3’	2.16▼	2.84▲	3.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 1–3–2 Sydney United 58

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney United 58	0-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers
12/08/26 Australia Cup	Apia L Tigers	1-1 HT 1-0	Sydney United 58
09/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-1 HT 2-1	Sydney United 58
20/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-2 HT 0-1	Sydney United 58
06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney United 58	2-1 HT 1-1	Apia L Tigers
28/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	1-2 HT 0-0	Sydney United 58

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	30	21	5	4	66	35	68
2	Sydney United 58	30	20	4	6	47	20	64
3	Marconi Stallions	30	19	5	6	50	22	62
4	Sutherland Sharks	30	14	4	12	46	38	46
5	Manly Utd	30	12	8	10	39	35	44
6	NWS Spirit FC	30	12	5	13	37	38	41
7	SD Raiders	30	12	5	13	44	49	41
8	Sydney FC U21	30	11	8	11	38	43	41
9	Rockdale Ilinden FC	30	12	4	14	46	44	40
10	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	30	11	5	14	55	49	38
11	Wollongong Wolves	30	11	5	14	35	43	38
12	St George City FA	30	10	7	13	30	46	37
13	Blacktown City	30	9	8	13	43	46	35
14	University NSW	30	9	5	16	38	49	32
15	St George Saints	30	8	3	19	28	55	27
16	Sydney Olympic	30	6	5	19	32	62	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apia L Tigers	Sydney United 58
NWS Spirit FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
St George City FA	4-2 W	0-1 L
St George Saints	0-0 D	6-0 W
Sydney Olympic	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Apia L Tigers

LWWWWDWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	4-2	6	0	W
23/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	3-1	4	8	W
08/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L

Sydney United 58

DWWLWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
30/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	6-0	11	1	W
23/08	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
15/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
09/08	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
02/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
19/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
12/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (45%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 45%, draw 28%, Sydney United 58 28%.

How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Apia L Tigers 1.48 · Sydney United 58 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.