Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 06/09, 23:30

Prediction: Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Sportivo Luqueno · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Sportivo Luqueno1.15

Sportivo Ameliano1.18

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Sportivo Luqueno Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Luqueno 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Ameliano 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Luqueno 1–3–2 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Sportivo Ameliano2-2Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Luqueno0-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-1Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-0Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano2-2Sportivo Luqueno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Luqueno 1481 · Sportivo Ameliano 1477

	Sportivo Luqueno	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportivo Ameliano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.92 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.16
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +1’	2.60	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:30	3.00	3.15	2.41
08:03	2.92▼	3.16▲	2.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Luqueno 1–3–2 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-2 HT 1-1	Sportivo Luqueno
07/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
02/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
16/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno
02/06/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
29/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-2 HT 2-1	Sportivo Luqueno

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	2-2 D	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	2-1 W	1-1 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-2 L	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	0-3 L	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-4 L	0-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	2-1 W	1-1 D
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	8	5	D
28/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
01/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-4	2	5	L
26/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
22/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
16/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
24/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Ameliano win (36%). Probabilities: Sportivo Luqueno 34%, draw 30%, Sportivo Ameliano 36%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Sportivo Luqueno 1.15 · Sportivo Ameliano 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.