Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 11/09, 21:00
Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Team pages: Sportivo Ameliano · Sportivo San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Sportivo Ameliano1.52
Sportivo San Lorenzo0.76
1X2
Sportivo Ameliano
Draw
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sportivo Ameliano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Sportivo San Lorenzo
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sportivo Ameliano
3–1
Sportivo San Lorenzo
(4 last)
- Sportivo San Lorenzo1-2Sportivo Ameliano
- Sportivo Ameliano1-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo Ameliano3-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo2-0Sportivo Ameliano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano 1498 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1400
| Sportivo Ameliano | Draw | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Ameliano (rating 1498 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Sportivo Ameliano: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Ameliano | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano 3–0–1 Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sportivo Ameliano |
| 01/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Ameliano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 25/09/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Sportivo Ameliano | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 19/06/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sportivo Ameliano |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo Ameliano | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cerro Porteno | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Nacional Asuncion | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Sportivo Ameliano (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Ameliano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 28/08 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Ameliano win (55%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 55%, draw 27%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 18%.
How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Sportivo Ameliano 1.52 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.