Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 11/09, 23:30

Prediction: 2 de Mayo vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: 2 de Mayo · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

2 de Mayo0.85

Libertad Asuncion1.26

1X2

25% 30% 45%

2 de Mayo Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

2 de Mayo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDWDW

Libertad Asuncion 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWDLW

Head-to-head

2 de Mayo 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion0-02 de Mayo
2 de Mayo0-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-12 de Mayo
2 de Mayo0-0Libertad Asuncion
2 de Mayo0-1Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-12 de Mayo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 2 de Mayo 1562 · Libertad Asuncion 1540

	2 de Mayo	Draw	Libertad Asuncion
Our model	24%	32%	44%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	2 de Mayo	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	3.2 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.20

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.90 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.44
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +2’	3.50	3.20	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +359’	3.90	3.44	1.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 2 de Mayo 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	2 de Mayo
14/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	2 de Mayo	0-2 HT 0-1	Libertad Asuncion
22/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-0	2 de Mayo
11/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	2 de Mayo	0-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
01/06/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	2 de Mayo	0-1 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
28/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	2 de Mayo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	2 de Mayo	Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	2-2 D	2-1 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-0 W	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 W	4-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 W	1-0 W
Cerro Porteno	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

2 de Mayo

LWWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
01/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
14/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	2-1	0	1	W
08/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
01/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
28/07	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
24/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	7	3	L

Libertad Asuncion

LWWLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 2 de Mayo vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Libertad Asuncion win (45%). Probabilities: 2 de Mayo 25%, draw 30%, Libertad Asuncion 45%.

How many goals are expected in 2 de Mayo vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.11 goals (2 de Mayo 0.85 · Libertad Asuncion 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in 2 de Mayo vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.