Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 13/09, 21:00

Prediction: Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

Team pages: Olimpia Asuncion · Sportivo Luqueno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Olimpia Asuncion2.16

Sportivo Luqueno1.01

1X2

62% 22% 15%

Olimpia Asuncion Draw Sportivo Luqueno

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Asuncion 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Luqueno 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLWDL

Head-to-head

Olimpia Asuncion 6–0 Sportivo Luqueno (6 last)

Sportivo Luqueno1-2Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion1-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno2-4Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion2-0Sportivo Luqueno
Olimpia Asuncion3-1Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-1Olimpia Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Asuncion 1556 · Sportivo Luqueno 1463

	Olimpia Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Luqueno
Our model	63%	22%	16%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (rating 1556 vs 1463).
H2H favours Olimpia Asuncion: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.1	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.54
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.17 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:42 +12’	1.44	3.90	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +482’	1.50	4.22	5.77
09:10 +5’	1.48▼	4.38▲	5.80▲
09:59 +22’	1.50▲	4.29▼	5.78▼
08:42 +6’	1.54▲	4.17▼	5.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Asuncion 6–0–0 Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 HT 1-0	Olimpia Asuncion
18/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
21/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	2-4 HT 2-1	Olimpia Asuncion
30/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	2-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Luqueno
20/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	3-1 HT 2-1	Sportivo Luqueno
09/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	1-4 L
Guarani Asuncion	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cerro Porteno	2-1 W	0-3 L
Sportivo Ameliano	2-1 W	1-2 L
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Rubio Nu	5-0 W	2-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-2 L	0-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
02/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
23/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
08/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
02/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
29/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
26/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
23/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	6	4	W

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
01/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	8	5	D
28/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
01/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-4	2	5	L
26/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Asuncion win (62%). Probabilities: Olimpia Asuncion 62%, draw 22%, Sportivo Luqueno 15%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Olimpia Asuncion 2.16 · Sportivo Luqueno 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.