Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 12/09, 23:30

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta · Sportivo Trinidense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Deportivo Recoleta1.33

Sportivo Trinidense1.83

1X2

26% 26% 47%

Deportivo Recoleta Draw Sportivo Trinidense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLLLL

Sportivo Trinidense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDLWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta 1–2–3 Sportivo Trinidense (6 last)

Sportivo Trinidense3-2Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta1-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense2-3Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-4Sportivo Trinidense
Deportivo Recoleta1-2Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense1-1Deportivo Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta 1456 · Sportivo Trinidense 1519

	Deportivo Recoleta	Draw	Sportivo Trinidense
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	26%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Trinidense (rating 1456 vs 1519).
H2H favours Sportivo Trinidense: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta	Sportivo Trinidense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.02
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.54 ★
2	1.91 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +1’	3.50	3.25	1.91
03:00 +2’	3.50	3.25	1.90▼
07:34 +13’	3.40▼	3.25	1.95▲
11:44 +25’	2.75▼	3.10▼	2.30▲
17:04 +25’	3.00▲	3.20▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +425’	3.62	3.47	1.99
23:32 +221’	3.66▲	3.51▲	2.00▲
06:17 +89’	3.43▼	3.46▼	2.10▲
11:31 +38’	2.94▼	3.41▼	2.40▲
15:32 +118’	3.09▲	3.45▲	2.29▼
23:17 +3’	3.02▼	3.54▲	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 1–2–3 Sportivo Trinidense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	3-2 HT 2-1	Deportivo Recoleta
23/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
15/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	2-3 HT 1-0	Deportivo Recoleta
04/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-4 HT 1-4	Sportivo Trinidense
27/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Trinidense
21/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta	Sportivo Trinidense
Cerro Porteno	1-3 L	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-3 L	3-0 W
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	0-1 L
Rubio Nu	3-1 W	0-0 D
Nacional Asuncion	3-2 W	1-1 D
Libertad Asuncion	1-4 L	1-2 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Trinidense (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Recoleta

WDLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	1	L
07/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
03/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
25/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
23/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	1	5	W

Sportivo Trinidense

WWWWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
29/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
21/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
15/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
10/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
03/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	1	1	W
29/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
24/07	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Trinidense win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 26%, draw 26%, Sportivo Trinidense 47%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 1.33 · Sportivo Trinidense 1.83), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.