Football · China Division 1 · 25/09, 13:00

Prediction: Wuxi Wugo vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Wuxi Wugo · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Wuxi Wugo1.36

Guangxi Hengchen1.73

1X2

29% 26% 45%

Wuxi Wugo Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wuxi Wugo 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWLW

Guangxi Hengchen 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Wuxi Wugo 2–0 Guangxi Hengchen (2 last)

Guangxi Hengchen1-2Wuxi Wugo
Wuxi Wugo1-0Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wuxi Wugo 1499 · Guangxi Hengchen 1540

	Wuxi Wugo	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangxi Hengchen (rating 1499 vs 1540).
H2H favours Wuxi Wugo: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wuxi Wugo	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	4.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.13
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.64
2	2.10 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.13 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:50 +15’	3.00	3.30	2.10
14:00 +6’	2.88▼	3.30	2.15▲
06:55 +8’	2.88	3.40▲	2.15
09:01 +3’	2.90▲	3.40	2.10▼
12:23 +2’	3.10▲	3.50▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +3’	3.00	3.53	2.17
13:11 +55’	2.83▼	3.45▼	2.30▲
06:56 +7’	2.90▲	3.47▲	2.25▼
08:52 +12’	2.93▲	3.49▲	2.22▼
09:38 +27’	2.92▼	3.50▲	2.22
11:02 +2’	2.96▲	3.56▲	2.24▲
12:22 +3’	3.13▲	3.64▲	2.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wuxi Wugo 2–0–0 Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 China Division 2	Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 HT 0-1	Wuxi Wugo
20/09/25 China Division 2	Wuxi Wugo	1-0 HT 1-0	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	23	10	9	4	31	20	39
5	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
6	Shaanxi Union	23	9	6	8	35	26	33
7	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
8	Dalian K'un City	23	7	8	8	30	33	29
9	Wuxi Wugo	23	8	5	10	35	29	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	23	9	5	9	27	29	29
11	Changchun Yatai	23	10	3	10	37	38	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wuxi Wugo	Guangxi Hengchen
Nanjing City	3-0 W	2-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-3 L	1-0 W
Yanbian Longding	2-0 W	2-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	0-2 L
Shaanxi Union	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wuxi Wugo

LWWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
13/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
05/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
22/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
15/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-3	0-3	3	1	L
02/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
25/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
17/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	2-0	5-1	2	1	W
04/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L

Guangxi Hengchen

WDWLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	3	4	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wuxi Wugo vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guangxi Hengchen win (45%). Probabilities: Wuxi Wugo 29%, draw 26%, Guangxi Hengchen 45%.

How many goals are expected in Wuxi Wugo vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Wuxi Wugo 1.36 · Guangxi Hengchen 1.73), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wuxi Wugo vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.