Football · China Division 1 · 19/09, 13:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Wuxi Wugo

Team pages: Nanjing City · Wuxi Wugo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Nanjing City1.4

Wuxi Wugo1.11

1X2

43% 29% 29%

Nanjing City Draw Wuxi Wugo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLLLL

Wuxi Wugo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 1–4–0 Wuxi Wugo (5 last)

Wuxi Wugo1-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City1-1Wuxi Wugo
Wuxi Wugo1-1Nanjing City
Wuxi Wugo1-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City5-0Wuxi Wugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1420 · Wuxi Wugo 1472

	Nanjing City	Draw	Wuxi Wugo
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wuxi Wugo (rating 1420 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Wuxi Wugo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1.1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +1’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 1–4–0 Wuxi Wugo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	1-1 HT 1-0	Nanjing City
15/09/24 China Division 1	Nanjing City	1-1 HT 0-1	Wuxi Wugo
28/04/24 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	1-1 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
27/08/23 China Division 1	Wuxi Wugo	1-1 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
13/05/23 China Division 1	Nanjing City	5-0 HT 3-0	Wuxi Wugo

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	23	15	6	2	46	19	51
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	22	11	6	5	38	26	39
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	23	9	8	6	32	25	35
6	Shaanxi Union	22	9	5	8	33	24	32
7	Ningbo Professional FC	22	9	5	8	27	28	29
8	Changchun Yatai	22	10	2	10	36	37	28
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
10	Dalian K'un City	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
11	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
12	Suzhou Dongwu	23	7	7	9	26	31	25
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	23	4	10	9	34	45	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	23	2	6	15	23	48	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Wuxi Wugo
Shenzhen Juniors	1-3 L	0-1 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Nantong Zhiyun	1-1 D	1-3 L
Yanbian Longding	1-1 D	2-0 W
Changchun Yatai	1-2 L	5-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-1 L	0-3 L
Dalian K'un City	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Wuxi Wugo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nanjing City

LLLDDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
06/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
08/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
01/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-2	6	2	L

Wuxi Wugo

DLWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
05/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
22/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
15/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-3	0-3	3	1	L
02/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
25/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
17/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	2-0	5-1	2	1	W
04/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
28/06	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-2	3-3	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Wuxi Wugo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nanjing City win (43%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 43%, draw 29%, Wuxi Wugo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Wuxi Wugo?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Nanjing City 1.4 · Wuxi Wugo 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Wuxi Wugo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.