Football · China Division 1 · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Shenzhen Juniors vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Shenzhen Juniors · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Shenzhen Juniors1.99

Changchun Yatai1.03

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Shenzhen Juniors Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen Juniors 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWWWD

Changchun Yatai 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Shenzhen Juniors 1–0 Changchun Yatai (1 last)

Changchun Yatai0-4Shenzhen Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen Juniors 1562 · Changchun Yatai 1495

	Shenzhen Juniors	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen Juniors (rating 1562 vs 1495).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen Juniors	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.3	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +28’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen Juniors 1–0–0 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	0-4 HT 0-3	Shenzhen Juniors

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	23	15	6	2	46	19	51
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	22	11	6	5	38	26	39
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	23	9	8	6	32	25	35
6	Shaanxi Union	22	9	5	8	33	24	32
7	Ningbo Professional FC	22	9	5	8	27	28	29
8	Changchun Yatai	22	10	2	10	36	37	28
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
10	Dalian K'un City	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
11	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
12	Suzhou Dongwu	23	7	7	9	26	31	25
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	23	4	10	9	34	45	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	23	2	6	15	23	48	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen Juniors	Changchun Yatai
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Meizhou Hakka	5-1 W	3-1 W
Foshan Nanshi	2-1 W	6-0 W
Nanjing City	3-1 W	2-1 W
Ningbo Professional FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Wuxi Wugo	1-0 W	1-5 L
Shaanxi Union	0-3 L	1-2 L
Suzhou Dongwu	0-0 D	1-2 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-3 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen Juniors

DDLWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
06/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	5-1	8	2	W
29/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
23/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
16/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
09/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
02/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
17/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	3-3	9	2	D

Changchun Yatai

WLWDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen Juniors vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen Juniors win (59%). Probabilities: Shenzhen Juniors 59%, draw 23%, Changchun Yatai 18%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen Juniors vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Shenzhen Juniors 1.99 · Changchun Yatai 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen Juniors vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.