Football · China Division 1 · 18/09, 13:30

Prediction: Meizhou Hakka vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Meizhou Hakka · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Meizhou Hakka1.28

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1.14

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Meizhou Hakka Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Meizhou Hakka 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLDLW

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Meizhou Hakka 2–0 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (2 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0-1Meizhou Hakka
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC2-6Meizhou Hakka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Meizhou Hakka 1474 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1536

	Meizhou Hakka	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (rating 1474 vs 1536).
H2H favours Meizhou Hakka: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Meizhou Hakka	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +7’	2.30	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Meizhou Hakka 2–0–0 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Meizhou Hakka
16/11/22 China FA Cup	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-6 HT 0-2	Meizhou Hakka

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	23	15	6	2	46	19	51
2	Shenzhen Juniors	22	12	6	4	38	24	42
3	Guangxi Hengchen	22	11	6	5	38	26	39
4	Nantong Zhiyun	21	9	9	3	28	18	36
5	Yanbian Longding	23	9	8	6	32	25	35
6	Shaanxi Union	22	9	5	8	33	24	32
7	Ningbo Professional FC	22	9	5	8	27	28	29
8	Changchun Yatai	22	10	2	10	36	37	28
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	22	7	6	9	19	24	27
10	Dalian K'un City	22	6	8	8	29	33	26
11	Wuxi Wugo	20	7	5	8	31	25	26
12	Suzhou Dongwu	23	7	7	9	26	31	25
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	23	4	10	9	34	45	22
14	Nanjing City	22	5	6	11	19	28	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	22	6	3	13	22	46	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	23	2	6	15	23	48	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Meizhou Hakka	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shenzhen Juniors	1-5 L	0-0 D
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-5 L	0-2 L
Guangxi Hengchen	0-1 L	1-0 W
Foshan Nanshi	3-2 W	2-1 W
Yanbian Longding	1-2 L	0-0 D
Shaanxi Union	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Meizhou Hakka

LWLLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-5	1	2	L
30/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-5	5	2	L
15/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
08/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
02/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
26/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
18/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
11/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-1	0-4	5	1	L

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

LDDDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/08	Dingnan Jiangxi United China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
08/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
11/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Meizhou Hakka vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Meizhou Hakka win (39%). Probabilities: Meizhou Hakka 39%, draw 29%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Meizhou Hakka vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Meizhou Hakka 1.28 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Meizhou Hakka vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.