Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 03/09, 01:00

Prediction: Caracas vs Portuguesa

Team pages: Caracas · Portuguesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Caracas1.3

Portuguesa1.13

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Caracas Draw Portuguesa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Caracas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLWDD

Portuguesa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWWDD

Head-to-head

Caracas 3–1–2 Portuguesa (6 last)

Portuguesa1-1Caracas
Caracas2-0Portuguesa
Portuguesa0-2Caracas
Portuguesa0-1Caracas
Caracas0-1Portuguesa
Portuguesa3-1Caracas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caracas 1502 · Portuguesa 1525

	Caracas	Draw	Portuguesa
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caracas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caracas	Portuguesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	1.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	6.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +9’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 3–1–2 Portuguesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-1 HT 0-0	Caracas
16/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Caracas	2-0 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
09/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-2 HT 0-2	Caracas
08/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-1 HT 0-0	Caracas
17/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Caracas	0-1 HT 0-0	Portuguesa
04/11/23 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	3-1 HT 0-1	Caracas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academia Puerto Cabello	6	4	1	1	11	4	13
2	Deportivo Tachira	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
3	Metropolitanos FC	6	4	1	1	11	7	13
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	4	0	2	16	8	12
5	Portuguesa	6	3	2	1	8	6	11
6	Estudiantes Merida	6	3	2	1	7	7	11
7	Carabobo	6	2	2	2	4	3	8
8	Trujillanos	6	2	1	3	6	7	7
9	Zamora	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
10	UCV	6	2	0	4	7	9	6
11	Caracas	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
12	Monagas	6	1	1	4	6	10	4
13	Academia Anzoategui FC	6	1	1	4	4	11	4
14	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	6	1	0	5	6	13	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caracas	Portuguesa
Deportivo Tachira	0-0 D	0-1 L
Carabobo	1-1 D	1-0 W
UCV	1-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo La Guaira	1-2 L	0-2 L
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-3 L	1-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	1-3 L	4-3 W
Metropolitanos FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caracas

WLDWDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
15/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
11/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
07/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
04/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-2	9	3	D
25/04	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-1	0	6	W
20/04	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/04	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/04	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Portuguesa

LWLWWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W
05/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
31/07	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-2	3	9	W
24/05	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	6	9	L
17/05	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/05	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Portuguesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caracas win (39%). Probabilities: Caracas 39%, draw 30%, Portuguesa 31%.

How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Portuguesa?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Caracas 1.3 · Portuguesa 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caracas vs Portuguesa?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.