Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 08/09, 00:00

Prediction: Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida

Team pages: Carabobo · Estudiantes Merida

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Carabobo1.8

Estudiantes Merida0.92

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Carabobo Draw Estudiantes Merida

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Carabobo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWDDL

Estudiantes Merida 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Carabobo 5–1 Estudiantes Merida (6 last)

Estudiantes Merida0-2Carabobo
Carabobo1-0Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida3-2Carabobo
Carabobo2-1Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida0-2Carabobo
Estudiantes Merida0-3Carabobo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carabobo 1527 · Estudiantes Merida 1505

	Carabobo	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carabobo: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carabobo	Estudiantes Merida
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.4	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.1	5.6 / 1.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.57 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +27’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +1’	1.55	3.75	5.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carabobo 5–0–1 Estudiantes Merida

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	0-2 HT 0-0	Carabobo
14/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-0 HT 0-0	Estudiantes Merida
18/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	3-2 HT 1-1	Carabobo
06/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	2-1 HT 0-0	Estudiantes Merida
25/01/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	0-2 HT 0-1	Carabobo
17/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	0-3 HT 0-1	Carabobo

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	7	5	1	1	16	8	16
2	Metropolitanos FC	7	5	1	1	15	8	16
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	7	4	2	1	12	5	14
4	Deportivo La Guaira	7	4	1	2	17	9	13
5	Portuguesa	7	3	3	1	9	7	12
6	Estudiantes Merida	7	3	3	1	8	8	12
7	Carabobo	7	2	2	3	7	7	8
8	Monagas	7	2	1	4	9	11	7
9	UCV	7	2	1	4	8	10	7
10	Caracas	7	1	4	2	7	9	7
11	Trujillanos	7	2	1	4	7	11	7
12	Zamora	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	7	2	0	5	10	16	6
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	7	1	1	5	5	14	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carabobo	Estudiantes Merida
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-4 L	0-3 L
Zamora	0-0 D	1-0 W
Caracas	1-1 D	2-2 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Academia Puerto Cabello	2-1 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Tachira	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carabobo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carabobo

DWWLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	8	8	L
31/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
17/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
08/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
04/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
31/07	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
08/06	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
31/05	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	5-1	5	10	W
24/05	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

Estudiantes Merida

LLLDWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
31/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
15/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-3	6	9	L
06/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
31/05	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
24/05	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	9	L
17/05	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carabobo win (57%). Probabilities: Carabobo 57%, draw 25%, Estudiantes Merida 18%.

How many goals are expected in Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Carabobo 1.8 · Estudiantes Merida 0.92), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.