Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 08/09, 01:00
Prediction: UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello
Team pages: UCV · Academia Puerto Cabello
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
UCV1.18
Academia Puerto Cabello1.39
1X2
UCV
Draw
Academia Puerto Cabello
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UCV
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Academia Puerto Cabello
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCV
2–1–3
Academia Puerto Cabello
(6 last)
- Academia Puerto Cabello2-1UCV
- UCV3-1Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello3-0UCV
- UCV0-1Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello2-2UCV
- UCV1-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCV 1444 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1552
| UCV | Draw | Academia Puerto Cabello | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Academia Puerto Cabello (rating 1444 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Academia Puerto Cabello: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCV | Academia Puerto Cabello | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.2 / 0.5 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCV 2–1–3 Academia Puerto Cabello
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 2-1 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 10/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 17/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 3-0 HT 1-0 | UCV |
| 21/01/26 America Friendlies | UCV | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 11/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 2-2 HT 1-0 | UCV |
| 02/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | Monagas | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 9 | UCV | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 10 | Caracas | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 12 | Zamora | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 6 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UCV | Academia Puerto Cabello |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Zamora | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Caracas | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Metropolitanos FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
Academia Puerto Cabello
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 01/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/06 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Academia Puerto Cabello win (40%). Probabilities: UCV 30%, draw 30%, Academia Puerto Cabello 40%.
How many goals are expected in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model expects 2.57 goals (UCV 1.18 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1.39), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.