Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 17/09, 00:00

Prediction: Brasil de Pelotas vs Santa Cruz RS

Team pages: Brasil de Pelotas · Santa Cruz RS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.67Total

Brasil de Pelotas1.05

Santa Cruz RS0.62

1X2

46% 32% 22%

Brasil de Pelotas Draw Santa Cruz RS

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Brasil de Pelotas 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDDWLD

Santa Cruz RS 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Brasil de Pelotas 2–1–0 Santa Cruz RS (3 last)

Brasil de Pelotas1-0Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS1-1Brasil de Pelotas
Brasil de Pelotas2-0Santa Cruz RS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brasil de Pelotas 1525 · Santa Cruz RS 1541

	Brasil de Pelotas	Draw	Santa Cruz RS
Our model	44%	36%	20%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.67 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brasil de Pelotas: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 13.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brasil de Pelotas	Santa Cruz RS
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.1 / 0	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:40 +2’	1.90	3.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brasil de Pelotas 2–1–0 Santa Cruz RS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Brasil de Pelotas	1-0 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS
27/06/26 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Santa Cruz RS	1-1 HT 1-0	Brasil de Pelotas
05/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho	Brasil de Pelotas	2-0 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	11	6	3	2	11	5	21
2	Passo Fundo RS	11	5	5	1	14	6	20
3	Santa Cruz RS	11	5	5	1	11	5	20
4	Uniao Frederiquense	11	5	4	2	10	5	19
5	CE Bento Goncalves	11	4	6	1	13	8	18
6	Brasil de Farroupilha	10	4	5	1	11	7	17
7	APAFUT	11	4	4	3	13	9	16
8	Aimore RS	11	4	4	3	10	10	16
9	Brasil de Pelotas	10	3	5	2	8	6	14
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	11	3	4	4	12	16	13
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	11	3	3	5	9	9	12
12	EC Pelotas	10	2	5	3	9	12	11
13	GE Bage	11	2	4	5	8	15	10
14	GE Gloria	10	2	3	5	7	10	9
15	Gramadense	11	1	4	6	7	16	7
16	Lajeadense	11	0	2	9	4	18	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brasil de Pelotas	Santa Cruz RS
Uniao Frederiquense	0-0 D	0-0 D
Veranopolis	0-1 L	3-0 W
Lajeadense	1-0 W	3-1 W
Brasil de Farroupilha	2-2 D	1-0 W
Aimore RS	1-0 W	1-1 D
CE Bento Goncalves	1-2 L	0-0 D
Gramadense	1-1 D	2-1 W
Passo Fundo	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Cruz RS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brasil de Pelotas

WDDLWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
01/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
28/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	2-2	5	9	D
23/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
20/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	8	L
13/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
07/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Santa Cruz RS

DWDWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
20/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
16/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
14/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	2	13	W
06/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brasil de Pelotas vs Santa Cruz RS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brasil de Pelotas win (46%). Probabilities: Brasil de Pelotas 46%, draw 32%, Santa Cruz RS 22%.

How many goals are expected in Brasil de Pelotas vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model expects 1.67 goals (Brasil de Pelotas 1.05 · Santa Cruz RS 0.62), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brasil de Pelotas vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.