Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 23/09, 20:00

Prediction: Gramadense vs EC Pelotas

Team pages: Gramadense · EC Pelotas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Gramadense1.02

EC Pelotas1.13

1X2

31% 31% 37%

Gramadense Draw EC Pelotas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gramadense 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDLLDD

EC Pelotas 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDDDLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gramadense 1455 · EC Pelotas 1465

	Gramadense	Draw	EC Pelotas
Our model	31%	32%	37%
Market	32%	31%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gramadense	EC Pelotas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.4	3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X2.90

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +10’	2.80	2.90	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	13	7	5	1	19	8	26
2	Veranopolis	13	6	4	3	11	6	22
3	CE Bento Goncalves	13	5	6	2	15	10	21
4	Uniao Frederiquense	13	5	6	2	14	9	21
5	Santa Cruz RS	13	5	6	2	12	8	21
6	APAFUT	13	5	5	3	16	11	20
7	Aimore RS	13	5	5	3	13	11	20
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	12	4	7	1	11	7	19
9	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	13	3	6	4	14	18	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	13	3	3	7	10	13	12
12	GE Bage	13	2	6	5	9	16	12
13	GE Gloria	12	2	5	5	10	13	11
14	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
15	Gramadense	13	1	6	6	8	17	9
16	Lajeadense	13	1	2	10	5	20	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gramadense	EC Pelotas
GE Bage	1-1 D	1-1 D
CE Bento Goncalves	1-3 L	1-1 D
Passo Fundo RS	0-2 L	3-3 D
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-2 D	2-3 L
Aimore RS	0-2 L	0-0 D
APAFUT	0-0 D	1-2 L
Santa Cruz RS	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	0 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EC Pelotas (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gramadense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
12/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
10/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
05/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	10	9	D
02/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
23/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
20/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	8	3	D

EC Pelotas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-3	15	4	L
10/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
03/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
23/08	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	4	D
16/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
14/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gramadense vs EC Pelotas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EC Pelotas win (37%). Probabilities: Gramadense 31%, draw 31%, EC Pelotas 37%.

How many goals are expected in Gramadense vs EC Pelotas?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Gramadense 1.02 · EC Pelotas 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gramadense vs EC Pelotas?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.