Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 24/09, 00:00

Prediction: Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT

Team pages: Santa Cruz RS · APAFUT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Santa Cruz RS1.25

APAFUT0.81

1X2

46% 31% 23%

Santa Cruz RS Draw APAFUT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Cruz RS 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDWWLD

APAFUT 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Cruz RS 1527 · APAFUT 1540

	Santa Cruz RS	Draw	APAFUT
Our model	45%	32%	23%
Market	46%	30%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Cruz RS	APAFUT
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +11’	1.91	3.00	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	13	7	5	1	19	8	26
2	Veranopolis	13	6	4	3	11	6	22
3	CE Bento Goncalves	13	5	6	2	15	10	21
4	Uniao Frederiquense	13	5	6	2	14	9	21
5	Santa Cruz RS	13	5	6	2	12	8	21
6	APAFUT	13	5	5	3	16	11	20
7	Aimore RS	13	5	5	3	13	11	20
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	12	4	7	1	11	7	19
9	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	13	3	6	4	14	18	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	13	3	3	7	10	13	12
12	GE Bage	13	2	6	5	9	16	12
13	GE Gloria	12	2	5	5	10	13	11
14	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
15	Gramadense	13	1	6	6	8	17	9
16	Lajeadense	13	1	2	10	5	20	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Cruz RS	APAFUT
Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-1 D	2-0 W
Brasil de Pelotas	0-2 L	1-1 D
GE Bage	1-0 W	3-0 W
Uniao Frederiquense	0-0 D	1-1 D
EC Pelotas	0-0 D	2-1 W
Veranopolis	3-0 W	1-2 L
Gramadense	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Cruz RS

DWLWDDWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
20/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
16/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
14/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

APAFUT

WDLDDWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-0	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Cruz RS win (46%). Probabilities: Santa Cruz RS 46%, draw 31%, APAFUT 23%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Santa Cruz RS 1.25 · APAFUT 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.