Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 24/09, 00:00

Prediction: Lajeadense vs Veranopolis

Team pages: Lajeadense · Veranopolis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Lajeadense0.7

Veranopolis1.21

1X2

21% 31% 48%

Lajeadense Draw Veranopolis

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Lajeadense 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Veranopolis 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWDDL

Head-to-head

Lajeadense 1–1–1 Veranopolis (3 last)

Veranopolis4-0Lajeadense
Lajeadense0-0Veranopolis
Veranopolis0-2Lajeadense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lajeadense 1433 · Veranopolis 1515

	Lajeadense	Draw	Veranopolis
Our model	20%	33%	47%
Market	22%	30%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Veranopolis (rating 1433 vs 1515).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lajeadense	Veranopolis
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.6	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.00

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +4’	4.10	3.00	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lajeadense 1–1–1 Veranopolis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Veranopolis	4-0 HT 2-0	Lajeadense
31/03/16 Brazil Primeira Liga	Lajeadense	0-0 HT 0-0	Veranopolis
04/02/15 Brazil Primeira Liga	Veranopolis	0-2 HT 0-0	Lajeadense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	13	7	5	1	19	8	26
2	Veranopolis	13	6	4	3	11	6	22
3	CE Bento Goncalves	13	5	6	2	15	10	21
4	Uniao Frederiquense	13	5	6	2	14	9	21
5	Santa Cruz RS	13	5	6	2	12	8	21
6	APAFUT	13	5	5	3	16	11	20
7	Aimore RS	13	5	5	3	13	11	20
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	12	4	7	1	11	7	19
9	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	13	3	6	4	14	18	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	13	3	3	7	10	13	12
12	GE Bage	13	2	6	5	9	16	12
13	GE Gloria	12	2	5	5	10	13	11
14	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
15	Gramadense	13	1	6	6	8	17	9
16	Lajeadense	13	1	2	10	5	20	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lajeadense	Veranopolis
Aimore RS	0-2 L	3-0 W
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	0-0 D
Santa Cruz RS	1-3 L	0-3 L
Uniao Frederiquense	1-2 L	0-1 L
Brasil de Pelotas	0-1 L	1-0 W
GE Gloria	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Veranopolis (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lajeadense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
17/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
13/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
02/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
23/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
20/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
13/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	4	4	L

Veranopolis

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
17/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
23/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-3	3	9	L
19/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
13/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lajeadense vs Veranopolis?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Veranopolis win (48%). Probabilities: Lajeadense 21%, draw 31%, Veranopolis 48%.

How many goals are expected in Lajeadense vs Veranopolis?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Lajeadense 0.7 · Veranopolis 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lajeadense vs Veranopolis?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.