Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 17/09, 00:30

Prediction: Lajeadense vs Sport Clube Gaucho

Team pages: Lajeadense · Sport Clube Gaucho

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Lajeadense0.85

Sport Clube Gaucho1.02

1X2

29% 33% 38%

Lajeadense Draw Sport Clube Gaucho

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Lajeadense 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Sport Clube Gaucho 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lajeadense 1–0 Sport Clube Gaucho (1 last)

Lajeadense2-1Sport Clube Gaucho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lajeadense 1407 · Sport Clube Gaucho 1478

	Lajeadense	Draw	Sport Clube Gaucho
Our model	28%	35%	37%
Market	30%	31%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Clube Gaucho (rating 1407 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lajeadense	Sport Clube Gaucho
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.7	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:23 +20’	3.00	2.90	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lajeadense 1–0–0 Sport Clube Gaucho

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	2-1 HT 1-1	Sport Clube Gaucho

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	11	6	3	2	11	5	21
2	Passo Fundo RS	11	5	5	1	14	6	20
3	Santa Cruz RS	11	5	5	1	11	5	20
4	Uniao Frederiquense	11	5	4	2	10	5	19
5	CE Bento Goncalves	11	4	6	1	13	8	18
6	Brasil de Farroupilha	10	4	5	1	11	7	17
7	APAFUT	11	4	4	3	13	9	16
8	Aimore RS	11	4	4	3	10	10	16
9	Brasil de Pelotas	10	3	5	2	8	6	14
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	11	3	4	4	12	16	13
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	11	3	3	5	9	9	12
12	EC Pelotas	10	2	5	3	9	12	11
13	GE Bage	11	2	4	5	8	15	10
14	GE Gloria	10	2	3	5	7	10	9
15	Gramadense	11	1	4	6	7	16	7
16	Lajeadense	11	0	2	9	4	18	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lajeadense	Sport Clube Gaucho
Uniao Frederiquense	1-2 L	0-1 L
Guarani de Venancio Aires	0-1 L	3-1 W
GE Gloria	0-0 D	2-1 W
Gramadense	1-1 D	0-1 L
Brasil de Farroupilha	1-3 L	0-1 L
GE Bage	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Clube Gaucho (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lajeadense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
02/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
23/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
20/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
13/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
09/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L

Sport Clube Gaucho

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
11/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
06/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
23/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
14/08	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
07/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lajeadense vs Sport Clube Gaucho?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sport Clube Gaucho win (38%). Probabilities: Lajeadense 29%, draw 33%, Sport Clube Gaucho 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lajeadense vs Sport Clube Gaucho?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Lajeadense 0.85 · Sport Clube Gaucho 1.02), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lajeadense vs Sport Clube Gaucho?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.