Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Santa Cruz RS vs Lajeadense

Team pages: Santa Cruz RS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.82Total

Santa Cruz RS1.36

Lajeadense0.46

1X2

59% 29% 12%

Santa Cruz RS Draw Lajeadense

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Cruz RS 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLWDDW

Lajeadense 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Santa Cruz RS 3–1–2 Lajeadense (6 last)

Lajeadense2-1Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS1-0Lajeadense
Lajeadense1-1Santa Cruz RS
Lajeadense0-1Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS2-0Lajeadense
Lajeadense4-1Santa Cruz RS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Cruz RS 1542 · Lajeadense 1405

	Santa Cruz RS	Draw	Lajeadense
Our model	58%	30%	12%
Market	60%	28%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 1.82 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Cruz RS (rating 1542 vs 1405).
H2H favours Santa Cruz RS: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Cruz RS	Lajeadense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.25

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:23 +26’	1.50	3.25	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Cruz RS 3–1–2 Lajeadense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	2-1 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS
13/08/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	1-0 HT 0-0	Lajeadense
06/08/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	1-1 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS
04/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	0-1 HT 0-1	Santa Cruz RS
28/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	2-0 HT 1-0	Lajeadense
28/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	4-1 HT 3-1	Santa Cruz RS

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	10	6	2	2	11	5	20
2	Passo Fundo RS	10	5	4	1	13	5	19
3	Uniao Frederiquense	10	5	3	2	10	5	18
4	Santa Cruz RS	10	4	5	1	8	4	17
5	APAFUT	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
6	Aimore RS	10	4	3	3	9	9	15
7	CE Bento Goncalves	10	3	6	1	10	7	15
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	9	3	5	1	10	7	14
9	Brasil de Pelotas	9	3	4	2	8	6	13
10	Sport Clube Gaucho	10	3	2	5	9	9	11
11	EC Pelotas	9	2	5	2	7	9	11
12	Guarani de Venancio Aires	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
13	GE Bage	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
14	Gramadense	10	1	4	5	6	13	7
15	GE Gloria	9	1	3	5	5	10	6
16	Lajeadense	10	0	2	8	3	15	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Cruz RS	Lajeadense
GE Bage	1-0 W	0-2 L
Uniao Frederiquense	0-0 D	1-2 L
EC Pelotas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Passo Fundo	0-2 L	0-3 L
Gramadense	2-1 W	1-1 D
CE Bento Goncalves	0-0 D	0-1 L
Brasil de Farroupilha	1-0 W	1-3 L
GE Gloria	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Cruz RS (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Cruz RS

DDWDWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
20/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
16/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
14/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	2	13	W
06/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Lajeadense

LLLLLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
02/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
23/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
20/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
13/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
09/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
02/08	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Cruz RS vs Lajeadense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Cruz RS win (59%). Probabilities: Santa Cruz RS 59%, draw 29%, Lajeadense 12%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Cruz RS vs Lajeadense?

The model expects 1.82 goals (Santa Cruz RS 1.36 · Lajeadense 0.46), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Cruz RS vs Lajeadense?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.