Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: GE Gloria vs Brasil de Farroupilha

Team pages: GE Gloria · Brasil de Farroupilha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

GE Gloria1.24

Brasil de Farroupilha1.11

1X2

38% 31% 32%

GE Gloria Draw Brasil de Farroupilha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

GE Gloria 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLLWD

Brasil de Farroupilha 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWWDWD

Head-to-head

GE Gloria 3–3 Brasil de Farroupilha (6 last)

Brasil de Farroupilha1-0GE Gloria
Brasil de Farroupilha1-0GE Gloria
GE Gloria3-1Brasil de Farroupilha
GE Gloria1-0Brasil de Farroupilha
Brasil de Farroupilha5-1GE Gloria
GE Gloria3-1Brasil de Farroupilha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GE Gloria 1471 · Brasil de Farroupilha 1539

	GE Gloria	Draw	Brasil de Farroupilha
Our model	38%	31%	32%
Market	38%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brasil de Farroupilha (rating 1471 vs 1539).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GE Gloria	Brasil de Farroupilha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.08

2 (+0.25)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.91
2	2.30 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +6’	2.90	2.90	2.30
09:40 +4’	2.35▼	2.90	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:32 +71’	2.19	2.91	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GE Gloria 3–0–3 Brasil de Farroupilha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Brasil de Farroupilha	1-0 HT 0-0	GE Gloria
30/06/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Brasil de Farroupilha	1-0 HT 1-0	GE Gloria
28/04/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	GE Gloria	3-1 HT 1-0	Brasil de Farroupilha
25/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	GE Gloria	1-0 HT 0-0	Brasil de Farroupilha
10/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Brasil de Farroupilha	5-1 HT 2-1	GE Gloria
15/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	GE Gloria	3-1 HT 1-0	Brasil de Farroupilha

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	12	6	5	1	16	7	23
2	Veranopolis	12	6	4	2	11	5	22
3	Uniao Frederiquense	12	5	5	2	13	8	20
4	Santa Cruz RS	12	5	5	2	11	7	20
5	APAFUT	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
6	CE Bento Goncalves	12	4	6	2	14	10	18
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	11	4	6	1	11	7	18
8	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Aimore RS	12	4	5	3	11	11	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	12	3	5	4	13	17	14
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	12	3	3	6	9	10	12
12	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
13	GE Bage	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
14	GE Gloria	11	2	4	5	10	13	10
15	Gramadense	12	1	5	6	7	16	8
16	Lajeadense	12	1	2	9	5	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GE Gloria	Brasil de Farroupilha
Uniao Frederiquense	3-3 D	1-1 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-2 L	1-0 W
CE Bento Goncalves	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lajeadense	0-0 D	3-1 W
APAFUT	1-1 D	1-0 W
Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Brasil de Farroupilha (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GE Gloria

LLDDLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
13/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
06/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
02/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/08	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
13/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Brasil de Farroupilha

LWDDDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
13/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
10/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
28/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	5	9	D
23/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
13/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	2	13	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GE Gloria vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GE Gloria win (38%). Probabilities: GE Gloria 38%, draw 31%, Brasil de Farroupilha 32%.

How many goals are expected in GE Gloria vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model expects 2.35 goals (GE Gloria 1.24 · Brasil de Farroupilha 1.11), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in GE Gloria vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.