Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: APAFUT vs Uniao Frederiquense

Team pages: APAFUT · Uniao Frederiquense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

APAFUT1.05

Uniao Frederiquense0.99

1X2

36% 32% 32%

APAFUT Draw Uniao Frederiquense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

APAFUT 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDWWLW

Uniao Frederiquense 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWDWDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APAFUT 1538 · Uniao Frederiquense 1535

	APAFUT	Draw	Uniao Frederiquense
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	36%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APAFUT	Uniao Frederiquense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	4.5 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.51
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.87 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +6’	2.45	2.90	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +92’	2.51	2.65	2.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	12	6	5	1	16	7	23
2	Veranopolis	12	6	4	2	11	5	22
3	Uniao Frederiquense	12	5	5	2	13	8	20
4	Santa Cruz RS	12	5	5	2	11	7	20
5	APAFUT	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
6	CE Bento Goncalves	12	4	6	2	14	10	18
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	11	4	6	1	11	7	18
8	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Aimore RS	12	4	5	3	11	11	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	12	3	5	4	13	17	14
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	12	3	3	6	9	10	12
12	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
13	GE Bage	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
14	GE Gloria	11	2	4	5	10	13	10
15	Gramadense	12	1	5	6	7	16	8
16	Lajeadense	12	1	2	9	5	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APAFUT	Uniao Frederiquense
Brasil de Farroupilha	0-1 L	1-1 D
Brasil de Pelotas	1-1 D	0-0 D
Gramadense	0-0 D	2-0 W
Veranopolis	1-2 L	1-0 W
GE Gloria	1-1 D	3-3 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Uniao Frederiquense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APAFUT

WWDLDDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-0	1	0	W
09/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	4	6	W

Uniao Frederiquense

WDLDWWDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
13/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
06/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
23/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	7	8	D
16/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
13/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	8	9	D
09/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APAFUT vs Uniao Frederiquense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APAFUT win (36%). Probabilities: APAFUT 36%, draw 32%, Uniao Frederiquense 32%.

How many goals are expected in APAFUT vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model expects 2.04 goals (APAFUT 1.05 · Uniao Frederiquense 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in APAFUT vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.