Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Aimore RS vs Lajeadense

Team pages: Aimore RS · Lajeadense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Aimore RS1.52

Lajeadense0.58

1X2

60% 27% 14%

Aimore RS Draw Lajeadense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Aimore RS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLDDD

Lajeadense 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Aimore RS 3–2–1 Lajeadense (6 last)

Aimore RS2-0Lajeadense
Lajeadense0-1Aimore RS
Aimore RS1-0Lajeadense
Lajeadense2-1Aimore RS
Aimore RS1-1Lajeadense
Lajeadense0-0Aimore RS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aimore RS 1507 · Lajeadense 1430

	Aimore RS	Draw	Lajeadense
Our model	59%	28%	13%
Market	60%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aimore RS (rating 1507 vs 1430).
H2H favours Aimore RS: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aimore RS	Lajeadense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	0.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.53 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +14’	1.48	3.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +92’	1.53	3.31	5.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aimore RS 3–2–1 Lajeadense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Aimore RS	2-0 HT 1-0	Lajeadense
01/08/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	0-1 HT 0-0	Aimore RS
24/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Aimore RS	1-0 HT 1-0	Lajeadense
10/07/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	2-1 HT 0-0	Aimore RS
14/04/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Aimore RS	1-1 HT 0-1	Lajeadense
06/05/18 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Lajeadense	0-0 HT 0-0	Aimore RS

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	12	6	5	1	16	7	23
2	Veranopolis	12	6	4	2	11	5	22
3	Uniao Frederiquense	12	5	5	2	13	8	20
4	Santa Cruz RS	12	5	5	2	11	7	20
5	APAFUT	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
6	CE Bento Goncalves	12	4	6	2	14	10	18
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	11	4	6	1	11	7	18
8	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Aimore RS	12	4	5	3	11	11	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	12	3	5	4	13	17	14
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	12	3	3	6	9	10	12
12	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
13	GE Bage	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
14	GE Gloria	11	2	4	5	10	13	10
15	Gramadense	12	1	5	6	7	16	8
16	Lajeadense	12	1	2	9	5	18	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aimore RS	Lajeadense
Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gramadense	2-0 W	1-1 D
Brasil de Pelotas	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	1-0 W
GE Gloria	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aimore RS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aimore RS

WLWWLWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	3	10	D
10/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
06/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
02/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	3	10	L
20/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
15/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
13/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
08/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Lajeadense

LLLDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
13/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
02/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
23/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
20/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
13/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
09/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aimore RS vs Lajeadense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aimore RS win (60%). Probabilities: Aimore RS 60%, draw 27%, Lajeadense 14%.

How many goals are expected in Aimore RS vs Lajeadense?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Aimore RS 1.52 · Lajeadense 0.58), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Aimore RS vs Lajeadense?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.