Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Santa Cruz RS

Team pages: Guarani de Venancio Aires · Santa Cruz RS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Guarani de Venancio Aires1.01

Santa Cruz RS1.22

1X2

29% 30% 40%

Guarani de Venancio Aires Draw Santa Cruz RS

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani de Venancio Aires 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWDLWD

Santa Cruz RS 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDDWWL

Head-to-head

Guarani de Venancio Aires 0–1–5 Santa Cruz RS (6 last)

Santa Cruz RS4-0Guarani de Venancio Aires
Guarani de Venancio Aires0-1Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS4-0Guarani de Venancio Aires
Guarani de Venancio Aires1-2Santa Cruz RS
Guarani de Venancio Aires2-2Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS2-1Guarani de Venancio Aires

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani de Venancio Aires 1494 · Santa Cruz RS 1533

	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Draw	Santa Cruz RS
Our model	29%	31%	40%
Market	30%	30%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santa Cruz RS: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Santa Cruz RS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	1.4 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	6.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.49 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +16’	3.00	3.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +92’	2.85	2.69	2.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani de Venancio Aires 0–1–5 Santa Cruz RS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	4-0 HT 1-0	Guarani de Venancio Aires
10/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	0-1 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS
12/06/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	4-0 HT 2-0	Guarani de Venancio Aires
09/04/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-2 HT 1-0	Santa Cruz RS
07/03/18 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-2 HT 0-0	Santa Cruz RS
08/03/17 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	2-1 HT 0-1	Guarani de Venancio Aires

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	12	6	5	1	16	7	23
2	Veranopolis	12	6	4	2	11	5	22
3	Uniao Frederiquense	12	5	5	2	13	8	20
4	Santa Cruz RS	12	5	5	2	11	7	20
5	APAFUT	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
6	CE Bento Goncalves	12	4	6	2	14	10	18
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	11	4	6	1	11	7	18
8	Brasil de Pelotas	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Aimore RS	12	4	5	3	11	11	17
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	12	3	5	4	13	17	14
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	12	3	3	6	9	10	12
12	EC Pelotas	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
13	GE Bage	12	2	5	5	8	15	11
14	GE Gloria	11	2	4	5	10	13	10
15	Gramadense	12	1	5	6	7	16	8
16	Lajeadense	12	1	2	9	5	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Santa Cruz RS
EC Pelotas	3-2 W	0-0 D
Gramadense	2-2 D	2-1 W
Lajeadense	1-0 W	3-1 W
GE Bage	0-1 L	1-0 W
Brasil de Farroupilha	3-3 D	1-0 W
Veranopolis	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Cruz RS (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani de Venancio Aires

DWLDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
05/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	2-2	3	9	D
02/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
27/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	4	5	D
16/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
13/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Santa Cruz RS

WDWLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
20/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
16/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
14/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	2	13	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Santa Cruz RS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Santa Cruz RS win (40%). Probabilities: Guarani de Venancio Aires 29%, draw 30%, Santa Cruz RS 40%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Guarani de Venancio Aires 1.01 · Santa Cruz RS 1.22), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.