Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: EC Pelotas vs Guarani de Venancio Aires

Team pages: EC Pelotas · Guarani de Venancio Aires

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

EC Pelotas1.71

Guarani de Venancio Aires0.7

1X2

61% 24% 14%

EC Pelotas Draw Guarani de Venancio Aires

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Pelotas 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWDDD

Guarani de Venancio Aires 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDLWDL

Head-to-head

EC Pelotas 4–2 Guarani de Venancio Aires (6 last)

Guarani de Venancio Aires0-1EC Pelotas
EC Pelotas4-0Guarani de Venancio Aires
EC Pelotas1-0Guarani de Venancio Aires
Guarani de Venancio Aires2-1EC Pelotas
Guarani de Venancio Aires3-2EC Pelotas
EC Pelotas2-1Guarani de Venancio Aires

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Pelotas 1508 · Guarani de Venancio Aires 1465

	EC Pelotas	Draw	Guarani de Venancio Aires
Our model	61%	26%	14%
Market	62%	24%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Pelotas (rating 1508 vs 1465).
H2H favours EC Pelotas: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Pelotas	Guarani de Venancio Aires
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.2	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.80

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +13’	1.45	3.80	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Pelotas 4–0–2 Guarani de Venancio Aires

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	0-1 HT 0-0	EC Pelotas
28/05/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	EC Pelotas	4-0 HT 0-0	Guarani de Venancio Aires
29/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	EC Pelotas	1-0 HT 1-0	Guarani de Venancio Aires
29/04/22 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-1 HT 1-0	EC Pelotas
06/05/18 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Guarani de Venancio Aires	3-2 HT 1-1	EC Pelotas
10/03/18 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	EC Pelotas	2-1 HT 0-1	Guarani de Venancio Aires

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	10	6	2	2	11	5	20
2	Passo Fundo RS	10	5	4	1	13	5	19
3	Uniao Frederiquense	10	5	3	2	10	5	18
4	Santa Cruz RS	10	4	5	1	8	4	17
5	APAFUT	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
6	Aimore RS	10	4	3	3	9	9	15
7	CE Bento Goncalves	10	3	6	1	10	7	15
8	Brasil de Farroupilha	9	3	5	1	10	7	14
9	Brasil de Pelotas	9	3	4	2	8	6	13
10	Sport Clube Gaucho	10	3	2	5	9	9	11
11	EC Pelotas	9	2	5	2	7	9	11
12	Guarani de Venancio Aires	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
13	GE Bage	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
14	Gramadense	10	1	4	5	6	13	7
15	GE Gloria	9	1	3	5	5	10	6
16	Lajeadense	10	0	2	8	3	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Pelotas	Guarani de Venancio Aires
CE Bento Goncalves	1-1 D	0-0 D
GE Gloria	2-1 W	2-1 W
Veranopolis	0-2 L	0-0 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	0-2 L	1-3 L
GE Bage	1-1 D	0-1 L
Lajeadense	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Pelotas

WWDLLDWDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
03/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
23/08	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	4	D
16/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
14/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
02/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Guarani de Venancio Aires

DLDWLDLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
05/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	2-2	3	9	D
02/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
27/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	4	5	D
16/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
13/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
07/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Pelotas vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Pelotas win (61%). Probabilities: EC Pelotas 61%, draw 24%, Guarani de Venancio Aires 14%.

How many goals are expected in EC Pelotas vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

The model expects 2.41 goals (EC Pelotas 1.71 · Guarani de Venancio Aires 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Pelotas vs Guarani de Venancio Aires?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.