Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 16/09, 20:00

Prediction: APAFUT vs EC Pelotas

Team pages: APAFUT · EC Pelotas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

APAFUT1.15

EC Pelotas1.12

1X2

36% 31% 34%

APAFUT Draw EC Pelotas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

APAFUT 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDDWWL

EC Pelotas 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWDDDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APAFUT 1528 · EC Pelotas 1478

	APAFUT	Draw	EC Pelotas
Our model	35%	31%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APAFUT (rating 1528 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APAFUT	EC Pelotas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +3’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	11	6	3	2	11	5	21
2	Passo Fundo RS	11	5	5	1	14	6	20
3	Santa Cruz RS	11	5	5	1	11	5	20
4	Uniao Frederiquense	11	5	4	2	10	5	19
5	CE Bento Goncalves	11	4	6	1	13	8	18
6	Brasil de Farroupilha	10	4	5	1	11	7	17
7	APAFUT	11	4	4	3	13	9	16
8	Aimore RS	11	4	4	3	10	10	16
9	Brasil de Pelotas	10	3	5	2	8	6	14
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	11	3	4	4	12	16	13
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	11	3	3	5	9	9	12
12	EC Pelotas	10	2	5	3	9	12	11
13	GE Bage	11	2	4	5	8	15	10
14	GE Gloria	10	2	3	5	7	10	9
15	Gramadense	11	1	4	6	7	16	7
16	Lajeadense	11	0	2	9	4	18	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APAFUT	EC Pelotas
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-0 W	2-3 L
Aimore RS	3-2 W	0-0 D
Veranopolis	1-2 L	0-2 L
GE Gloria	1-1 D	2-1 W
GE Bage	3-0 W	1-1 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	0-2 L
CE Bento Goncalves	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APAFUT

DWWDLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-0	1	0	W
09/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
05/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	2	D

EC Pelotas

WDLLDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-3	15	4	L
10/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
03/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
23/08	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	4	D
16/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
14/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APAFUT vs EC Pelotas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APAFUT win (36%). Probabilities: APAFUT 36%, draw 31%, EC Pelotas 34%.

How many goals are expected in APAFUT vs EC Pelotas?

The model expects 2.27 goals (APAFUT 1.15 · EC Pelotas 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in APAFUT vs EC Pelotas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.