Football · Brazil Serie A · 13/09, 21:00

Prediction: Mirassol vs Vitoria

Team pages: Mirassol · Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Mirassol1.5

Vitoria0.74

1X2

55% 28% 18%

Mirassol Draw Vitoria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLDDLW

Vitoria 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Mirassol 1–2–3 Vitoria (6 last)

Vitoria1-0Mirassol
Vitoria2-0Mirassol
Mirassol1-1Vitoria
Vitoria0-0Mirassol
Mirassol2-0Vitoria
Mirassol1-2Vitoria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1472 · Vitoria 1456

	Mirassol	Draw	Vitoria
Our model	54%	29%	17%
Market	55%	27%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vitoria: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Vitoria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	0.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.78 ★
2	4.33 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +2’	1.83	3.40	4.33
07:28 +3’	1.75▼	3.50▲	4.75▲
10:04 +17’	1.73▼	3.50	5.00▲
03:21 +4’	1.73	3.50	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +29’	1.76	3.69	4.48
02:34 +16’	1.78▲	3.72▲	4.53▲
03:02 +41’	1.82▲	3.66▼	4.40▼
11:45 +14’	1.75▼	3.76▲	4.71▲
09:25 +22’	1.75	3.74▼	4.72▲
10:27 +46’	1.73▼	3.78▲	4.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 1–2–3 Vitoria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
29/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
26/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-1 HT 1-1	Vitoria
02/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Vitoria	0-0 HT 0-0	Mirassol
20/05/23 Brazil Serie B	Mirassol	2-0 HT 1-0	Vitoria
08/08/22 Brazil Serie C	Mirassol	1-2 HT 0-2	Vitoria

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	26	16	6	4	51	21	54
2	Palmeiras	26	15	8	3	45	21	53
3	Athletico Paranaense	26	13	6	7	38	28	45
4	Fluminense	26	12	9	5	40	32	45
5	EC Bahia	26	11	10	5	40	32	43
6	Cruzeiro	26	12	6	8	38	37	42
7	Coritiba	26	10	7	9	34	35	37
8	Atletico Mineiro	25	10	6	9	32	30	36
9	Bragantino	25	10	5	10	31	28	35
10	Sao Paulo	25	9	6	10	31	28	33
11	Vitoria	26	9	5	12	25	37	32
12	Corinthians	26	8	8	10	27	27	32
13	Santos	25	8	8	9	37	38	32
14	Botafogo	25	8	7	10	37	40	31
15	Gremio	25	7	7	11	27	33	28
16	Mirassol	26	7	7	12	29	40	28
17	Vasco da Gama	25	6	7	12	27	40	25
18	Internacional	26	5	10	11	28	34	25
19	Remo	26	5	8	13	30	43	23
20	Chapecoense	25	3	8	14	27	50	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Vitoria
Flamengo	0-2 L	0-2 L
Palmeiras	1-1 D	0-4 L
Santos	1-1 D	1-3 L
Remo	2-1 W	0-2 L
Vasco da Gama	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gremio	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

LWDWLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Vitoria

LWDLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L
27/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
24/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
31/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Vitoria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (55%). Probabilities: Mirassol 55%, draw 28%, Vitoria 18%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Vitoria?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Mirassol 1.5 · Vitoria 0.74), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vitoria?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.